In this rapidly evolving digital age, Pakistan struggles with serious gaps in agricultural data collection, resulting in unsound public policies. The cost of these missteps is ultimately borne by all stakeholders across the sector, including farmers, consumers, and the government.

At the close of the 2025 wheat harvest, all governmental estimates projected that a yield of 28.98 million tonnes, along with carryover stocks of 5m tonnes, would adequately meet the country’s annual requirements. Nevertheless, just four months later (in the second fortnight of August), an unexpected price surge — from Rs2,350 to Rs3,100 per 40kg — has raised critical concerns.

Speculation is now mounting that imports may be unavoidable by the end of the year, though the volumes remain unclear. The entire sector is adrift in guesswork. Pakistan’s real dilemma is that no one knows who holds the wheat stocks, in what quantities, or where they are stored.

This is not the first instance of flawed estimation. In 2023-24, Pakistan imported a massive 3.59m tonnes of wheat over fears of an impending shortage. Yet the country harvested a record 31.8m tonnes in 2024, which led to an oversupply that subsequently drove down prices and inflicted heavy losses on farmers.

Inadequate and unreliable number on both production and subsequent storage is hampering business planning and decision-making across the entire agri value chain

The sugar sector offers an equally stark example. The government permitted the export of 750,000 tonnes under the assumption that existing stocks would suffice for domestic needs. Yet within months, prices soared beyond Rs200 per kilogram, which proved the stock projections disastrously wrong. Consequently, the government has now allowed the import of 500,000 tonnes of sugar to avert shortages in the market.

These are not isolated cases. Several times in the past, Pakistan exported sugar and wheat only to import the same a few months later to cover domestic shortfalls — a glaring mockery of our data collection system and its use in policymaking.

Sadly, such flawed estimations, stemming from inadequate and unreliable data on both production and subsequent storage, are not confined to government-controlled essential commodities. The problem is even more acute in other crops, which hampers business planning and decision-making across the entire value chain.

For instance, this year, potato production rose by 11.5 per cent. As with every season, potatoes — being perishable — are stored in large quantities in cold storage facilities by farmers and stockists to cater to domestic demand over the next eight months and to fulfil year-round export orders. Unfortunately, the country lacks a reliable record of the number of operational cold storage facilities, their capacity, or stock levels at the end of harvests. Assumptions of a bumper harvest, coupled with the lack of real-time data, have fuelled speculation and triggered panic selling.

Several times in the past, Pakistan exported sugar and wheat only to import the same a few months later to cover domestic shortfalls

Another more recent example comes from the cotton sector, where a dispute persists between the Punjab Crop Reporting Service (CRS) and the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association over the cotton production figure — 609,000 bales as per the former versus 301,000 bales as per the latter — casting serious doubt on the reliability and accuracy of the country’s agricultural data.

The CRS still relies on conventional sample-based techniques (area-frame sampling), which heavily depend on the skills, integrity, and diligence of field enumerators. No doubt, these methods worked well in the past; however, over the last decade, variability in crop yields between traditional and progressive farmers has increased significantly — driven by a wider range of seed choices, varying levels of mechanisation, diverse farming practices, and shrinking farm sizes. Such variability has made agricultural farms increasingly heterogeneous, rendering CRS yield estimates less reliable.

In today’s digital age, the availability of accurate and transparent data is essential for fostering a business-friendly environment that could attract investment. According to media reports, the Special Investment Facilitation Council is spearheading the adoption of advanced technologies such as remote sensing, geographic information systems, and crop modelling to enrich CRS estimates.

However, crop acreage and yield data alone cannot fully address the issues highlighted earlier. There is a pressing need to maintain a record of the available crop stocks in the country. Factors such as changes in the production of substitute crops, smuggling, exports, and abrupt government policy decisions often alter the supply-demand balance in the country, which must be captured precisely. For instance, unlike last year, feed mills are consuming enormous volumes of wheat as a cheaper substitute for maize, following government permission to procure wheat. It is high time that the government developed a comprehensive database of cold storage facilities and private warehouses with capacities exceeding 50 tonnes and introduced a mechanism of regular stock reporting through a digital platform accessible to all stakeholders.

A strong stock-tracking system will strengthen evidence-based policymaking and improve import-export decisions. Digitisation of the economy and the reduction of market distortions are its added advantages. Although the Punjab Registration of Godowns Act 2014 and the Sindh Registration of Godowns Act 1995 exist, both require revision to align with today’s digital needs. The government must act swiftly to secure a data-driven future for the agriculture sector. However, to succeed, it needs to break the resistance of powerful interest groups.n

Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 1st, 2025