KARACHI: Despite a slump in exports and the devastating impact of recent floods, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish trend, marking the fourth consecutive session of gains.

The benchmark KSE-100 index surged past the 152,000-point barrier, reaching an all-time high, buoyed by strong performances from the cement and fertiliser sectors.

Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation attributed the market’s record close to the optimistic GDP growth projections by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), ranging between 3.25pc and 4.25pc for FY26. Additionally, speculation surrounding trade relations under CPEC 2.0 and the Pak-China Free Trade Agreement, along with stronger-than-expected sectoral data, contributed to the bullish momentum.

Pakistan’s merchandise exports, however, remained in negative territory in August, raising concerns among policymakers about diminishing global demand and the country’s declining competitiveness. This marks the fourth contraction in exports over the past five months, with only a brief respite in July due to marginal growth. The persistent decline highlights the increasing pressure on the nation’s trade performance, as exporters grapple with subdued external demand and rising business costs.

According to Topline Securities, the stock market continued to rally, with the KSE-100 index recording an intraday high of 1,829 points before settling at 152,201 points, a gain of 1,226 points or 0.81pc.

KSE-100 index settles above 152,000 points despite economic challenges

Investor sentiment remained positive, fuelled by strong sectoral performances. The cement sector, in particular, saw notable gains, driven by a 12pc year-on-year (YoY) increase in despatches in August, boosting overall optimism in the market.

The fertiliser sector also attracted significant investor interest, with urea sales rising 46pc YoY and 34pc month-on-month (MoM) to reach 816,000 tonnes in August. This surge was supported by aggressive discounting from select manufacturers and the anticipation of a partial rollback in September.

Hub Power, from the power sector, also contributed to the bullish sentiment, reporting robust 4QFY25 results with earnings of Rs9.16 per share and a Rs10 per share dividend — higher than market expectations. This brought its full-year payout to Rs15 per share.

On the index front, major support came from Hub Power, Fauji Fertiliser, Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC), Mari Petroleum, and Pakistan Petroleum, which collectively added 788 points to the day’s gains. However, despite the strong rally, the total trading volume dropped by 3.5pc to 1.04 billion shares, although traded value increased by 15.5pc to Rs51.49 billion. Pace Pakistan led the volume chart, with 89.2 million shares traded.

Ali Najib, Deputy Head of Trading at Arif Habib Ltd, noted that the PSX had indeed made history by closing at a record high of 152,202 points. The surge was also driven by encouraging trade deficit numbers and stronger-than-expected offtake figures for cement and urea.

The standout performer of the session was Hub Power, which posted an impressive Rs10 dividend alongside its FY25 results, delivering an earnings per share (EPS) of Rs10.29 for 4QFY25. Its stock price jumped 8.1pc, lifting the index by 405 points.

This triggered similar gains in the exploration and production (E&P) sector, with OGDC, Mari Petroleum, and Pakistan Petroleum collectively adding another 198 points to the index.

Despite the challenges posed by external factors such as the trade deficit and floods, the 150,000-point mark now appears to be a solid floor for the market. Investor optimism remains high, bolstered by expectations of a relief package for farmers and hopes of a resolution to the power sector’s circular debt issue. With strong liquidity and continued momentum, bulls are now eyeing even higher levels in the sessions to come.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025