0
WHILE the tragic attack in Pahalgam and escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India may have increased the prospects of war between the two countries, New Delhi is already fighting an arguably bigger war with potentially dire consequences.
This past month, India has been hit by 10 per cent tariffs on goods it ships to the US. The US is India’s largest trading partner, with exports to it accounting for 18pc of India’s manufacturing output. The trade deficit between the two is $45.7 billion.
As seen during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US visit, President Donald Trump is irked by this and unwilling to give India breaks in the tariff war he has unleashed on much of the world. Since then, the initial tariffs have come into effect, with possibly more to follow, bringing the total up to 26pc if India fails to strike a deal that is to America’s liking by July.
So when the Vances showed up in India this week, all jaunty with their children in tow, Trump’s right-hand man knew he had to deliver for his boss in D.C. This week, Trump’s trade team — far less belligerent than when the tariffs were first announced — has been eager to boast of how the world is coming to America, begging for reprieve.
“South Korea is very close to a deal,” one headline read, adding that the Trump team was delighted by how the South Koreans had brought their A-game and were ready to move into specifics. Speaking to the press after meeting the Norwegian prime minister, Trump and his chief economic adviser Scott Bessent reiterated this. Another headline announced that things were similarly “close” with Japan.
Close, of course, is not done, and all the president’s men are eager to deliver the ‘first’ complete deal, J.D. Vance chief among them. The veiled threats that the Trump administration is passing off as diplomacy were everywhere. As announced at the Trump-Modi meeting in February, there was pressure to get India to purchase US Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter planes as part of India’s efforts to modernise its air fleet. This ‘deal’ sounds good in theory but presents problems for Modi’s domestic initiatives.
First, it has been reported that the F-35 fighter jet may not necessarily be a better deal than the SU Stealth 37 fighters, which Russia has proposed could be produced within India. This aligns with Modi’s ‘Make in India’ initiative aimed at creating more domestic jobs. The F-35 costs $80 million per unit, without full technology transfer, driving up maintenance costs. Aligning with the Trump administration’s aim to have more manufacturing jobs in the US, these would not be produced in India.
When J.D. Vance visited India, he knew he had to deliver for his boss.
Second, concerns have been raised regarding the effectiveness of the F-35 as a fighter aircraft, including by the Congress party in India. It has also been noted that, before becoming best buddies with Trump, Tesla CEO and czar of the much-feared ‘Department of Government Efficiency’, Elon Musk, called the F-35 “junk”. In the drone age, manned fighter jets like the F-35 are, in Musk’s view, obsolete.
Of course, Vance could not mention that on his Indian trip. Vance welcomed the idea of India buying energy from the US. The push, again, was for India to stop buying Russian or Gulf oil and, instead, import it from the US, meaning shipping it halfway across the globe. To do this, India would also have to reconfigure its refineries. Even as Vance glibly called the agreement a ‘win-win’ for both countries, many would see this as a superpower bullying a trade partner into submission.
Reading between the lines of the Vance visit shows how far apart the two countries are. Vance aimed to leverage his ‘Indianness’ — the silent, smiling Usha and children ready for photo ops — to rush a deal that would make him a favourite with his boss. The Indians, for their part, thought they could use what many have portrayed as their inside connection to the Trump administration — the Indian-American second lady — as a way to wriggle out of tariffs and the forced purchase of planes they perhaps don’t need and oil they cannot easily refine.
However, not even the crisis sparked by the terror attack was enough to soften Vance’s hard sell. Trump’s boys care only about pleasing Trump — India, to Vance, is not the enchanted native land of his beloved but simply an opportunity to curry favour and become the top dog among Trump’s band of deal-hunters. The tension between India and Pakistan is unfortunate, but follows the usual playbook.
India’s trade war with the US, however, seems to augur only uncertainty and depression for an otherwise burgeoning Indian economy.
The writer is an attorney teaching constitutional law and political philosophy.
Published in Dawn, April 26th, 2025
