LONDON: The UK’s Labour Party appears poised for its largest parliamentary majority in a century, it emerged on Monday.

According to a YouGov poll, Labour led by Keir Starmer is set to secure a 194-seat majority, marking the biggest electoral victory since 1924 when Conservative politician Stanley Baldwin triumphed with 208 seats.

This projection, the first from YouGov since the election was called, signals a dramatic shift in the UK’s political landscape.

Labour is expected to win 422 seats, a significant increase of 222 from the 2019 results. This would surpass Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 and is the highest number of seats Labour has ever won.

The poll indicates a substantial defeat for the Conservative Party, which could drop to just 140 seats, the lowest since their 131 seats in 1906.

YouGov’s polling, which includes over 53,000 interviews in England and Wales and over 5,500 in Scotland, suggests Labour’s vote share would be 42.9 per cent, compared to the Conservatives’ 24.5 per cent.

The potential Labour landslide spells trouble for many high-profile Conservative ministers. The poll suggests that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, among others, are at risk of losing their seats.

Interestingly, in an LSE blog from 2022 researcher and Emeritus Professor in the Department of Gover­nment at the University of Essex Paul Whitely noted that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support.

Published in Dawn, June 4th, 2024