WHAT does the recent flurry of political activity signify? A new and more intense phase of political manoeuvring? Stepped up efforts by political parties to mobilise support to strengthen their position in the country’s shifting politics, but with an eye on elections down the road? The opposition testing the waters for a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan? Posturing by smaller parties and groups to enhance their leverage in an uncertain political environment?

It seems to be all of the above. For his part, Prime Minister Khan appears under pressure. This is indicated by his statements and decision to launch a public campaign by addressing rallies across the country, kicking off the first one in Mandi Bahauddin. The PM’s bitter attacks on the opposition suggest he is feeling vulnerable even though he emphatically denies any panic in his party. His anger however is palpable when he accuses opposition leaders of banding together to oust him by a no-confidence vote aimed at evading accountability. This was evidenced most recently at the Mandi Bahauddin awami jalsa. Meanwhile, cabinet ministers have scrambled to deny, rather defensively, that any no-confidence move could succeed.

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The latest spasm of political activity has been triggered by PML-N leaders reaching out to PPP and others. In the meeting between PML-N president Shehbaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari they agreed to explore the possibility of a no-trust move against the government in the National Assembly. The PDM then announced it would work towards this goal. Sharif’s call on Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain ostensibly to inquire about his health but also meet Pervaiz Elahi showed the opposition on an outreach course with long-time rivals. Engagement with government allies was not limited to PML-Q, which holds the balance of power in Punjab. Sharif also met MQM leaders. Contact is also reported with the powerful Jahangir Khan Tareen (JKT) group which has enough MNAs to play a decisive role in the evolving situation.

Efforts to explore whether politics can be realigned to support the opposition’s aims are still in an initial, probing stage. Unless the opposition is sure about the required numbers it will obviously not proceed with its no-confidence move — an uphill task in any case. It has yet to determine the time frame for the move. It also has obstacles to overcome, including forging a unified approach among disparate parties with competing interests, agree on strategy and on what comes after, if the motion succeeds. It has to reckon with the country’s history in which a vote of no-confidence has always failed. Failure, after all, will be a big blow to the opposition. What opposition parties are also testing is whether the establishment will be neutral because they see this as a make-or-break factor for success or failure.

Both the government and opposition need to recraft their narratives in the country’s shifting politics.

Opposition activity has nonetheless pushed politics into an unpredictable phase with the political temperature rising by the day. By combining plans for a long march with the threat of a no-confidence motion the opposition wants to generate maximum pressure. Whether or not this move materialises, talk about it has raised the stakes and pushed both the government and opposition into campaign mode. The government’s efforts are focused on keeping its ranks united and coalition partners on its side. It apparently plans to induct more ministers in the cabinet from allied parties. The opposition is trying to woo PTI allies, independent MNAs or those belonging to the JKT group.

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With an eye on elections, whether held earlier or at their due time next year, the government and opposition are also seeking to rally public support beyond their constituencies. In this endeavour, both sides are burdened by tired rhetoric and need to recast their narrative to appeal more widely. The ruling party’s narrative now sounds like a broken record. It continues to be defined by the ‘all opponents are chors and corrupt’ mantra and the promise to put them behind bars. That puts the entire accent on demonising the opposition rather than setting out what the government has done in its three years and its plans for the future.

The prime minister’s speech at Multan earlier this month at the launch of the health card illustrates this. Rather than make this initiative the dominant — and only — theme, he dwelt on assailing the opposition. This stance overlooks the fact that PTI’s accountability narrative has run its course and people want to know how the ruling party will address the issues that agitate them especially economic worries. The PTI government claims it has taken many initiatives aimed to benefit the underprivileged. It should be making these its principal plank. Instead, a bevy of PTI spokesmen constantly surface on TV to accuse opposition leaders of ‘plunder’.

If the governing party needs to craft a fresh narrative so does the opposition. The leaders of a motley group of opposition parties keep defining their narrative by what they oppose rather than what they stand for or have to offer as policy alternatives. In mimicking the ruling party by punctuating their rhetoric with charges of corruption against the government, opposition leaders are hardly raising the public debate. Far better for them to engage ministers in policy debates and lay out solutions to national problems. How would they manage the economy, for example, in such a challenging environment?

The focus by both sides on simply attacking the other has contributed to a form of issue-less politics, where instead of the country’s challenges being discussed, politics is reduced to deriding opponents. Both government and opposition have a responsibility to raise the level of discourse, and to articulate people’s concerns and how they propose to address them. With multiple challenges facing the country — inflation, income erosion and unemployment being top public priorities — and new security threats emerging, solutions to these, among others, should be dominant in party platforms.

But if the narratives of both sides remain unchanged it will strengthen the public impression that politics is just a power struggle between them, disconnected from issues that affect them and the country’s future. And that the politics of the no-confidence move only serves the opposition’s interests and not the public’s.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK & UN.

Published in Dawn, February 21st, 2022