THE country’s politics is dominated by the hectic efforts of the opposition to bring about a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan. The feverish activity surrounding the issue and the flurry of meetings and consultations between various opposition leaders and government allies is giving rise to a perception that the opposition has something up its sleeve.

This perception is fuelled further by confident statements coming from various opposition members who continue to say that the days of the PTI government are numbered. Such a prediction is in fact linked to numbers.

For the vote of no-confidence to succeed the opposition has to show a strength of 172 members in the National Assembly. The opposition leaders are keeping their cards close to their chest and very few seem to know what numbers are at play within this strategy.

Various options have been discussed. These entail either some of the government’s allies crossing the floor to join the opposition, or some members of the ruling PTI switching sides. The opposition says many such members are in touch with them because they believe that their chances of winning their seat in the next general elections are much brighter if they ditch the PTI ticket in favour of a PML-N one. This is easier said than done because the PML-N has its own candidates in almost all constituencies of Punjab.

Negotiations are said to be underway. Despite this confidence, the opposition again suffered a defeat in the Senate earlier this week which goes to show that its parliamentary position remains vulnerable despite it enjoying a majority in the Upper House. The opposition has undertaken a risky route to oust Mr Khan given that a vote of no-confidence against a sitting prime minister has not succeeded in the past.

Yet the government is nervous. Perhaps for good reason too. The meetings of its allies with the opposition have not led to any definitive outcome as yet but the very fact that the allies were willing to engage in such contact is itself a source of concern for the government.

In addition, it also knows that estranged leader and the PTI’s former secretary general Jahangir Tareen has also shown the support of more than two dozen parliamentarians belonging to the ruling party. He too is in a position to bring the required numbers to the opposition’s side if he chooses to do so.

Read more: PTI feeling the heat from opposition overtures to Tareen

The government is vulnerable on many fronts and knows it. Signs of this nervousness are gradually becoming visible. The sudden decision to give more cabinet seats to allies in the federal and Punjab governments, the public outreach by the prime minister, fresh attacks on opponents and the aggressive actions against critics like Mohsin Baig are all clear indications that the government is feeling the pressure.

Published in Dawn, February 20th, 2022