THIS is with reference to the letter ‘Questionable narrative’ (June 10) in which the Ambassador of Ukraine to Pakistan presented Ukraine’s suffering as a self-evident proof of Russian aggression, inviting readers to accept a narrative stripped of historical context. That is precisely the posture that has made this war so resistant to resolution.

No serious political analyst disputes the human cost borne by the Ukrainian people. However, the question of how this war began, and how it might reach a just conclusion cannot be answered by opening the account in February 2022. History did not begin that morning.

The structural cause most cited in strategic literature is Nato’s eastward expansion. Following the Cold War, the alliance’s advance continued despite repeated warnings from Moscow. These warnings reflected the predictable calculus of any state confronting the forward deployment of a rival military alliance on its border. No major power, including the United States and China, would tolerate such a development without resistance. These concerns were communicated clearly. They were dismissed.

The events of 2014 proved a decisive turning point. Whatever one’s assessment of the change of government in Kyiv that year, the consequences proved difficult to reverse. Ukraine’s strategic orientation shifted sharply away from Moscow.

The Minsk Agreements, conceived as a diplomatic framework for de-escalation, were subsequently described as having served primarily to buy time for Ukraine’s rearmament rather than to pursue a long-term, genuine settlement. That acknowledgment does carry weight as it speaks to the question of intent on all sides.

The invasion of Ukraine is indefensible, and Russia bears direct and primary responsibility for the war’s conduct and its consequences. However, justification and explanation are distinct matters. Understanding how a crisis was created is the necessary precondition for ending it.

Any settlement that solely examines Russian conduct, without addressing the strategic miscalculations that actually produced this confrontation, will not lead to durable peace. In essence, it will be a pause before the next escalation surfaces.

Lt-Col (retd) Syed Raziuddin
Rawalpindi

Published in Dawn, July 9th, 2026