For now, there is no clarity on where Ali Amin Gandapur’s resignation really is. A day after he stepped down as the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa chief minister — on the directive of PTI founder Imran Khan — it seemed that his resignation got lost in red tape, with the Governor House denying having ever received it.

Officials at the Chief Minister’s Secretariat told Dawn that Gandapur’s resignation had been delivered to the Governor House on Wednesday night — the same day he was asked to vacate the post. A copy of the letter seen by Dawn showed it was received by the governor’s staff at 10:57pm.

However, KP Governor Faisal Karim Kundi, who was in Islamabad on Thursday, and other officials at the Governor’s Secre­tariat remained tight-lipped about the issue.

An official on Kundi’s staff told Dawn that they were yet to receive the resignation letter. “As far as I know, the resignation has not yet reached the Governor’s Office,” the official said, adding that the governor would sign it whenever he received it.

Meanwhile, speaking to reporters in Islamabad, Kundi described reports regarding the receipt of the resignation letter at the Governor House as “fake news”.

While ambiguity surrounds the whereabouts of Gandapur’s resignation letter, the PTI has picked Sohail Afridi, an MPA from the Khyber district, as his potential replacement. But, to assume the CM’s office, he will first have to ensure the backing of the majority for himself in the 145-strong KP Assembly.

Dissolution and election

It is understood that the provincial cabinet is also dissolved when the CM’s resignation is accepted.

While the Constitution does not explicitly elaborate on this, lawyer Asad Rahim explained to Dawn.com that “it has developed as a strong convention supported by constitutional interpretation”.

He referred to Article 130(1) of the Constitution, which states: “There shall be a cabinet of ministers, with the chief minister at its head, to aid and advise the governor in the exercise of his functions”.

This can be read to imply that power flows through the CM to the cabinet, and once the head is gone, the rest dissolves automatically, he said. Relevant instances that demonstrate this are of Mohammad Azam Khan’s demise in 2023, when he was the caretaker KP CM and Jam Kamal stepping down as the Balochistan CM. About Kamal’s case, Rahim said, “His cabinet was deemed to have been dissolved as well despite no mention of him saying so in his resignation”.

So Gandapur’s cabinet will also most likely be dissolved when, and if, his resignation is accepted.

After accepting his resignation, the governor would have to call a session of the provincial assembly for the election of the new CM.

For the election of a chief minister following general elections, Article 130 of the Constitution states: “The provincial assembly shall meet on the 21st day Following the day on which a general election to the assembly is held, unless sooner summoned by the governor.

“After the election of the speaker and the deputy speaker, the provincial assembly shall, to the exclusion of any other business, proceed to elect without debate one of its members to be the chief minister.”

But, it is silent on how swiftly the election is to be conducted when a CM resigns without completing their tenure.

Rahim said there didn’t seem to be an explicit time frame in the Constitution for the governor to summon the assembly to hold the CM’s election following a resignation.

“In fact, Article 133 states that ‘The Governor may ask the chief minister to continue to hold office until his successor enters upon the office of chief minister’,” he said.

However, he also cited a Lahore High Court judgement issued regarding the delay in oath-taking of Hamza Shehbaz Sharif after he was elected as the Punjab Assembly CM in 2022.

The judgement refers to Article 130(3) of the Constitution, which states: “After the election of the speaker and the deputy speaker, the provincial assembly shall, to the exclusion of any other business, proceed to elect without debate one of its members to be the chief minister.”

Rahim explained that the provision only applied when a CM was to be appointed following a general election and not a resignation, and the judgement also used the term “earliest election” without giving a specific time frame.

The judgement, however, does underline that the use of the words “exclusion of any other business” in the provision directed the “the prompt exercise to elect the chief minister”.

“The mandate of this Article manifests the importance of the earliest election of the chief minister. Certainly, without the cabinet, the assembly would not be able to perform its functions and the chief minister, being head of the cabinet, who has to constitute/formulate his cabinet, must have been elected without further loss of time after the election of the speaker and the deputy speaker so that the government is functional.

“From this analogy, it can safely be concluded that whenever the office of the chief minister falls vacant, the same shall be filled promptly by election keeping in view the desire of the Constitution and Rules 17, 18, 19 and 20 of the Rules of Procedure framed under the mandate of the Constitution in terms of Article 67 read with Article 127, which provide the procedure for completion of the election within two unified days from summoning of the session,” the judgement states.

How many votes count?

A candidate shall be elected as the CM by “votes of the majority of the total membership of the provincial assembly”, according to clause 4 of Article 130 of the Constitution.

The Constitution further explains that if no member secures the required majority votes in the first poll, a second round of contest shall be held between the two members who garner the highest votes.

“The member who secures a majority of votes of the members present and voting shall be declared to have been elected as chief minister, provided further that, if the number of votes secured by two or more members securing the highest number of votes is equal, further polls shall be held between them until one of them secures a majority of votes of the members present and voting,” the Constitution states.

After a Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court rendered the PTI ineligible for reserved seats in national and provincial assemblies, its position in the 145-member KP Assembly has weakened.

The opposition currently holds 52 seats while there are 93 independents, according to the KP Assembly’s website.

According to the PTI, it has the backing of 92 independent MPAs, around 40 of whom are those who had filed nomination papers as independent candidates from the very beginning and later decided to support the PTI.

The remaining PTI-aligned independent MPAs had initially submitted nomination papers as PTI candidates during the 2024 general elections. But after the Election Commission of Pakistan stripped the party of its electoral symbol, a bat, they eventually contested elections as independents.

Going by these numbers, hopefuls for the CM office need to secure at least 73 votes in the 145-member assembly to win the election.

This means that the opposition’s candidate would need the support of just 21 more independent MPAs— which doesn’t seem unachievable given the fissures within the PTI.

What are the chances?

The opposition leader seems hopeful about their chances of fielding a candidate who would manage to defeat the PTI’s candidate.

Earlier, Opposition Leader in the KP Assembly Ibadullah Khan, reportedly told Dawn.com that he had called a meeting of opposition members on Tuesday to discuss the future strategy. “The political situation in the province, following the resignation of the chief minister, which was an expected development, will be thoroughly reviewed and a comprehensive strategy will be discussed,” he said.

However, the meeting wasn’t held due to the unavailability of opposition MPAs.

Ibadullah, who is from the PML-N, highlighted that there were a large number of independent candidates in the KP Assembly — albeit them backing the PTI — and added, “Elections do lead to upsets […] Everything is possible in politics.”

But, PPP MPA Mohammad Ali Shah said while speaking to Dawn.com that it was too early to say anything about the elections.

“We, including the joint opposition, will reach a consensus to nominate a favourable candidate,” he said, adding that after seeking instructions from PPP Chairperson Bilawal-Bhutto Zardari, his party would jointly devise a strategy with the rest of the opposition.

“We need a CM who can successfully deal [with] the current security situation in KP. We need a CM who can fight for provincial rights,” he emphasised.

Senior journalist Lehaz Ali, meanwhile, does not see the opposition outperforming the PTI in the election for CM. He was not of the opinion that a forward bloc could create an upset for the PTI.

“PTI members seem well convinced that any move against the party decision would damage their public image,” he said while speaking to Dawn.com.

Ali further stated that Afridi’s nomination was a “message that Imran Khan would be doing aggressive politics going forward”.

On this, Special Assistant to the KP Chief Minister on Population Welfare Malik Liaqat commented while speaking to Dawn.com that “Sohail Afridi’s nomination was Imran Khan’s decision. Each member will stand with this decision”.

“Afridi has never been a part of any group. The opposition can continue to dream however they like,” he added.