THE state has a major problem on its hands. The people of KP are repeatedly making it clear that they have no stomach for another military operation; the provincial government seems to have run out of ideas about how to secure their consent; and security forces are constantly pushing for action because they appear to feel there is no option but to take the kinetic route to purge the region of hostile elements. Past security operations involved mass relocation and displacement of local populations, which not only socially upended the affected areas but also fractured local economies. With those memories still fresh, citizens in the worst-affected areas are worried that they may be uprooted again and face another long spell of uncertainty and upheaval, because the security situation, too, is spiralling out of control. Interestingly, none of the stakeholders denies that the increasing lawlessness needs to be addressed — it is the ‘how’ that nobody seems to agree on. Massive public rallies have been held in different locations to put public opposition to military operations on the record, but what options does the state have then?

The intel-based operations that have been at the centre of state attention in the past few years have not been able to achieve their desired impact. Indeed, they have managed to deny anti-state elements a foothold in any region, but locals also know that there are areas where terrorists continue to hold sway; where they block roads, extort tolls and patrol unchallenged. In this context, the state’s counter-insurgency policy appears to be falling short in the eyes of the public. Since security policy is also perceived to be dictated by the establishment, the picture has been further complicated. A wide chasm has developed between the PTI and Islamabad due to the ongoing political tussle between the PTI and federal government, which has impaired the KP government’s ability to get behind a military operation. A multi-party moot has been proposed in the coming days to deliberate KP’s security situation and the path forward. Unless all the parties set aside their differences and decide to come on board, getting the public to acquiesce may be impossible to accomplish. The state must resist the temptation to impose top-down solutions. Without public trust, any operation, no matter how well planned, may deepen the wounds it seeks to heal.

Published in Dawn, July 20th, 2025