POLITICAL chaos, economic fragility and resurgent terrorism were the key issues confronting Pakistan in 2023, and will have to be dealt with head-on in 2024 by the new government if the country is to embark on the path to stability.

Needless to say, the three issues are interlinked, and only a credible election bringing about an uncontroversial administration can address these existential issues. Any other outcome — especially one that is managed in an undemocratic manner — will deepen our miseries.

The abyss of default was narrowly averted in 2023, but that does not mean we are in the clear. As observers have noted, stability has returned, but unless we fix our economic fundamentals, the next financial crisis may not be too far off. While promises of our friends in the Gulf to pour in billions of dollars are reassuring, structural changes are what is really required. This entails living within our means, and not depending on the benevolence of others in order to run the country.

Further, the elite must bear the largest burden of financial readjustment and austerity, not the toiling masses that have already been crushed by record inflation.

It is a given that financial solvency can only be achieved through political stability, which the country has been missing for the last several years. Controversy continues to dog the pre-election process, and if the 2024 polls are judged unfair by the electorate and the principal political players, stability will continue to elude Pakistan. In fact, the success of all future state policies is linked to a non-controversial, democratically elected set-up.

With regard to terrorism, 2023 saw a huge surge in attacks by the banned TTP and allied groups, mostly targeting security forces. The incoming dispensation will have to act fast before these militant attacks transform into a full-blown terrorist insurgency that military operations can at least partially quell.

The new set-up will also have to frame a proactive foreign policy. The larger region — the Gulf and the Middle East — is ready to explode, and Pakistan must be prepared for the geopolitical, economic and military fallout should a wider conflagration erupt.

Meanwhile, ties are at their lowest with India, and later in 2024, a new government will also take the reins in New Delhi. Managing this prickly relationship, reinvigorating the peace process, and finding a just solution to the Kashmir question will be major challenges vis-à-vis ties with India.

Suffice it to say, good governance will not be easy for the next administration. State institutions can take either of two paths in 2024: the first entails respect for the constitutional order and working to build a more progressive country; the second is to keep plodding along the same tired course, and prepare to face the consequences.

Published in Dawn, December 31st, 2023