The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) has forecast that Eidul Fitr is expected to fall on March 21 as the chances of sighting the Shawwal moon on March 19 remain low.

In a statement issued on Wednesday, Suparco said that the new moon of Shawwal 1447 AH was expected to be born on March 19 at 6:23am.

“At the time of sunset on March 19, 2026, the age of the new moon will be approximately 12 hours and 41 minutes, with an estimated 28-minute interval between sunset and moonset along Pakistan’s coastal belt,” it added.

Based on these astronomical parameters, the statement said, the “chances of sighting the Shawwal crescent on the evening of March 19 2026 are low”.

“Consequently, 1st Shawwal 1447 AH is anticipated to fall on Saturday, March 21, 2026, marking the conclusion of the holy month of Ramazan,” it added.

However, it continued, “the final decision regarding the sighting of the Shawwal crescent and the commencement of Eidul Fitr 1447 AH will be made by the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee of Pakistan, which is the sole competent authority to announce the beginning of Islamic months on credible witness testimonies and verified observations from across the country”.

Earlier, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) also predicted that Ramazan was likely to last 30 days this year as the Shawwal moon was unlikely to be visible on March 19 (29th of Ramazan).

“As per astronomical analysis, there is no chance of sighting the new moon of Shawwal 1447 AH on the evening of March 19,” the PMD said.

The department said the prediction is based on astronomical analysis.