According to Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) report, 12.6 million bales had hit the market by March 1. With almost of a month of pickings remaining, the target is sure to be surpassed. But achievement of downwards revised target cannot be taken as a source of consolation, as the country had produced more than 14 million bales without Bt cotton long ago. With Bt cotton seed now covering almost 90 per cent of the area, the production should multiply, as it happened in India.

The list of weak links in production plan must start with the role of government in bringing some sanity in the seed market. Over the last two decades, cotton crop all over the world has taken a shift for better. Jettisoning traditional varieties, producers around the globe shifted to Bt or other hybrid varieties. The international shift was carefully evolved, scrupulously planned and meticulously monitored till its initial success was ensured and the farmers properly educated.

In Pakistan, however, these years have been a reign of error. It started the shift late by almost a decade and the government remained impervious to the process. The entire shift to Bt cotton during the last five year has been somewhat chaotic and self-grown, outside the legal framework. The government not only refused to allow Bt cotton till it had covered almost 70 per cent of the sown area, and its officials were earlier arresting farmers found with the Bt seed.”

By doing so, the government thus deprived itself of any possible role in cotton development. The vacuum was filled by “unscrupulous seed traders, who sold anything and everything in the name of Bt, and production targets, even revised ones were missed, for the next four years.”

During these years, there were almost 33 different varieties in the market, and no one knew their parentage. With varieties of unknown origin and parentage ruling the market, no farmer knew the production protocol - water, fertilisation and agronomic practices.

The government has woken up to the need for Bt during the last two years. It has already sifted eight, out of 33, varieties for official approval and is in the process of doing so. It, however, is getting too late. It did not approve the varieties last year and is currently involved in procedural matters when the sowing season is so close. An early decision will install some sense in the cotton seed market.

But mere approval of few varieties would not solve the entire range of problems related to Bt seed. These eight varieties were picked up from 33 in the market for “having some Bt expression in them.”

The level and strength of the expression is not a matter of certainty, at least so far. The government is collecting required data of these varieties, which would mainly be provided by the seed sellers and cannot be fully trusted. There are chances that some good may come out of these varieties, but it would not be a matter of certainty.

The government might have to go for further experimentation on seed. Granted that the seed selection and development is an ongoing process, a quality and tested variety is urgently needed to kick start cotton production.

Another weak link this year would be availability of seed. As the situation stands now, the public sector does not have sufficient stock and the private sector has doubled the price because it knows the extent of paucity of seed.

The Punjab government has already launched a massive training (district officials) and awareness (farmers) programme for upcoming cotton sowing. But such plans only succeed in an enabling environment, which, unfortunately, is missing so far. The governments, both federal and provincial, need to move quickly to approve new varieties and create a credible mechanism to take the seed to farmers.