CLIMATE change can no longer be viewed merely as an environmental problem; it is now driving up poverty, a new World Bank report says. It warns that if emissions continue unabated, an additional 43m people could be pushed into extreme poverty by 2050. That figure may even rise to 150m if income inequality also deepens. It is abundantly clear that the world’s poorest and least prepared countries will suffer the most. The report discusses two high-emission scenarios. The first — called SSP5 — imagines rapid global economic growth powered by fossil fuels, but with no serious effort to cut emissions. The second, SSP5-RCP8.5, adds the full economic effects of climate change: falling farm yields, lost labour productivity, and slower GDP growth. The difference between the two shows how many more people will fall below the poverty line simply because of climate-induced income losses. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to carry the heaviest burden. But South Asia, too, will struggle. By 2030, climate change could leave nearly 49m people in the region in extreme poverty — 10m more than under a no-climate-damage scenario. By 2050, South Asia could potentially eliminate extreme poverty. But under the high-emissions scenario, 3.4m people would still be left behind.

Pakistan, with its large rural population, weak safety nets and high exposure to heatwaves, floods and crop failures, is among the most at risk. Already struggling to lift its poorest citizens above the poverty line, it could be pushed further off course unless it adapts fast. This summer, heavy rains have claimed several lives, destroyed homes, displaced families and cut off entire communities. Another intense spell of monsoon rain is now forecast to begin on July 29 — a reminder that the climate crisis continues to unfold. The report also highlights the danger of inequality. Even a modest rise in income inequality could sharply increase poverty rates. In countries like Pakistan, where inequality is already entrenched, the risks are even higher. What can be done? Pakistan must rethink its development planning to prioritise climate resilience. This means better infrastructure, drought-resistant farming, and stronger social protection. If the country fails to act, it may find itself stuck — not just in poverty, but in a vicious cycle where climate change makes people poorer, and poverty makes them more vulnerable to climate shocks. Time is running out.

Published in Dawn, July 28th, 2025