The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) on Monday forecasted that the holy month of Ramazan would begin on March 2 (Sunday) while Eidul Fitr would be observed on the 31st of the month.

A press release issued today said the commission had released its forecast for the moon’s visibility based on scientific assessments, astronomical calculations and modern observational data.

However, it emphasised that the Central Ruet-i-Hilal Committee would examine testimonies from across the country and formally announce the holy month’s official start since the unaided observation of the crescent moon with the naked eye was a religious obligation for determining the month’s beginning.

“According to precise astronomical models, the new moon (conjunction) for Ramazan will occur on February 28, 2025, at 05:45 PST. However, the visibility of the crescent depends on key factors such as the moon’s age, its angular separation from the sun, altitude at sunset, and atmospheric conditions,” Suparco said.

It said the probability of the moon’s visibility on Feb 28 was “not visible even with optical aid” and thus the likelihood of a moon sighting on the date in Pakistan is “extremely low”.

“Consequently, Sha’aban is expected to complete 30 days, and the first day of fasting will likely be observed on March 2. In Saudi Arabia, the new moon is also expected to be born on Feb 28. However, due to the moon’s position relative to the horizon, and atmospheric clarity, the crescent is expected to be visible leading to the commencement of Ramzan on March 1. In Pakistan, however, it will begin a day later.

“According to astronomical models, the Shawwal moon will be visible on March 30, indicating that Eidul Fitr will likely be observed on March 31 in Pakistan,” the press release said.