DUBAI: Countries at the COP28 climate conference are considering calling for a formal phase-out of fossil fuels as part of the UN summit’s final deal to tackle global warming.

The proposal is set to spark heated debate among the nearly 200 countries, with some Western and climate-vulnerable states pushing for the language to be used and many oil and gas producers keen to leave it out.

The draft of what could be the final agreement from COP28, released by the UN climate body on Tuesday, proposed “an orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels” which if adopted would mark the first global deal to end the oil age.

But even as NGOs slammed the record number of fossil fuel lobbyists at the UN climate talks this year, the industry showed it wouldn’t browbeaten, with the OPEC cartel hosting a chat on “climate initiatives” and one of the heads of the “Big Oil” majors sparring with activists.

This year’s summit saw more delegates from fossil fuel interests than country delegations from ten most-vulnerable states combined

On the COP28 main stage, the CEOs of several major energy firms argued in favour of oil and gas, highlighting their progress in areas such as cutting the greenhouse gas methane.

“We are big guys and we can do big things. We can deliver results and we will have to report them very soon,” said Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Brazil’s state-run oil company Petrobras. “The energy transition will only be valid if it’s a fair transition,” he added.

At least 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists registered for this year’s summit, an analysis of UN registration data published by Kick Big Polluters Out showed, outnumbering the delegates from the 10 most climate vulnerable countries combined.

If taken as a group they outnumber “every country delegation” apart from the UAE and Brazil, which will host COP30 in 2025, the coalition said.

The Marshall Islands, meanwhile, unveiled a national plan to adapt to rising sea levels, a recognition that the impacts of warming are already hitting its shores.

“While we hope for a world where the world fulfils the promise of the Paris Agreement to contain climate change, as an extremely climate vulnerable country we need to be realistic and honest about the difficult path ahead,” said Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner, the country’s climate envoy.

Draft text of COP28 deal

The draft text for a COP28 final deal includes three options for dealing with fossil fuels.

The first is “an orderly and just phase-out”. In UN parlance, the word “just” suggests wealthy nations with a long history of burning fossil fuels would phase out fastest.

The second calls for “accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels”. And a third would be to avoid mentioning a phase-out at all.

The United States, the 27 countries of the European Union and climate-vulnerable small island states are pushing for a fossil fuel phase-out to drive the deep CO2 emissions reductions scientists say are needed this decade.

Even so, none of the world’s major oil and gas-producing countries have plans to eventually stop drilling for those fuels, according to the Net Zero Tracker, an independent data consortium including Oxford University.

Big producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia have resisted past proposals for a phase-out.

The draft text also includes language calling for the scaling up of carbon capture technology, which is likely to draw pushback from some countries worried such nascent technologies are being used to justify the continued use of fossil fuels.

Published in Dawn, December 6th, 2023