THE appointment of Balighur Rehman as new Punjab governor after weeks of political wrangling between the president and prime minister might have paved the way for the provincial cabinet’s formation, but the troubles of Chief Minister Hamza Shehbaz are far from over. Certainly, the development has left the PTI and PML-Q leadership with fewer options to recapture power in the country’s most populous province, yet the alliance still has tricks up its sleeve to create problems for Hamza even if it can’t knock him out completely. The immediate challenge facing the new set-up pertains to the passage of the next provincial budget this month. Although the ruling coalition claims to be still commanding a majority among the existing members of the assembly despite the disqualification of 25 PTI MPAs who had voted for Hamza, it will likely struggle to muster a simple majority for the passage of the money bill, and the failure to do so will automatically trigger its fall. The apex court’s verdict that the votes of lawmakers defying their party’s instructions or abstaining from voting either in the election of the prime minister and chief minister or on a money bill cannot be counted means the coalition can no longer depend on new, potential PTI-PML-Q defectors for the approval of the budget.

That is not all. The coalition parties are also far short of the magic number of 186 in the house to vote out Speaker Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, who is the other contender for the throne in Punjab. As long as he is there, he will continue to create difficulties for the PML-N in governing the province effectively. If he is to be removed from office, the coalition must win in the July 18 by-elections most of the 20 seats which fell vacant in the wake of the PTI defectors’ disqualification. More importantly, the fate of the present set-up largely hinges on the outcome of the petitions filed by the opposition against Hamza’s election and his subsequent oath as chief minister administered by the National Assembly Speaker under a court order. In short, the PML-N and its allies need to cross many hurdles before they can effectively govern the province that has been at the centre of an intense political drama for the last several weeks. At the same time, the PTI and PML-Q must deal with many ‘ifs’ before they can hope to regain power in Punjab.

Published in Dawn, June 1st, 2022