ISLAMABAD: The latest nowcasts released by UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) on Wednesday showed that the value of global merchandise trade is predicted to fall by 5.6 per cent in 2020 as compared with last year.

This would be the biggest fall in merchandise trade since 2009, when trade fell by 22pc. This is a significantly more optimistic nowcast than only a few weeks ago when Unctad nowcasts were estimating a fall of 9pc.

The nowcasts — data-led projections for the immediate future — were published as part of Unctad’s comprehensive annual ‘Handbook of Statistics for 2020’, which presents the statistical landscape for 2019 with nowcasts for 2020.

The predicted decline in services trade is much greater, with services likely to fall by 15.4pc in 2020 compared with 2019. This would be the biggest decline in services trade since 1990, when this series began. In 2009, following the global financial crisis, services trade fell by 9.5pc.

Unctad’s quarterly International Trade in Services Bulletin, which contains the latest detailed information, shows that this plunge has been driven by a considerable decline in travel, transport and tourism activity.

Published in Dawn, December 10th, 2020