Budget and Panama

Published May 20, 2016

THE deliberations surrounding an inquiry into the Panamanian affairs of the prime minister are finally set to begin in a properly defined context, and it is time to keep them within the confines agreed upon. The finance minister needs to be freed from the deliberations so he can focus on the more important budget preparations that should be the biggest claim on his time these days. With an agreement that the terms of reference for the inquiry will be decided by a parliamentary body, the political crisis has now found rails and should stay there. The budget process is at risk of being subordinated to the noise and fury of the affair, and that must be prevented from happening. The tools of the budgetary exercise should not be used to shore up the government’s support during this crisis, and insulating the budget from the pressures generated by the political crisis should be the priority. There are indications already that the crisis is driving the government to adopt a goodies-laden approach towards the budget in the hopes of buying popular support, such as the May Day announcement by the Punjab chief minister to raise the minimum wage by Rs1,000. A hike in the minimum wage is not a bad thing, but the timing of the announcement gives rise to suspicions that it is designed to buy support at a time when the government is struggling to regain its credibility.

Much damage can be done to the economy if the government loses track of its responsibilities at this critical juncture. This is the last full-year budget the government is going to announce and the last opportunity to get some vital work done, particularly on the fiscal and structural side where matters have been bogged down since 2013. If we see wildly unrealistic revenue targets, followed by goodies like enhanced laptop distribution— a pet scheme of this government — we’ll know they have taken the low road forward. This is the time to be searching for revenues to fulfil next year’s goals, and deciding on expenditure priorities that best advance economic growth and job creation. The Panama disclosures have presented the government with a stark challenge to explain the assets of the prime minister, but the matter need not, and certainly must not, become an all-consuming obsession that takes away from the government’s ability to discharge key obligations either.

Published in Dawn, May 20th, 2016

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