ISLAMABAD, Sept 22: The country is likely to face an unusual shortage of irrigation water during the coming Rabi season, according to estimates released by the technical committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) on Monday.

Irsa Chief Engineer Aurangzeb Khattak told journalists after a meeting of the committee that the shortage could range between 35 and 40 per cent.

Last year, a shortage of 23 per cent was expected, but timely rains and rationing helped control the situation.

The estimate of a 35-40 per cent shortage is the highest since 2004 when a deficiency of over 40 per cent was experienced.

Wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, barley and mustard are major crops of the season, which begins on Oct 1 and ends on April 30.

The shortage of water will affect the wheat output target of 24 million tons unless strict management and rationing are planned. This may strengthen inflationary pressure and raise the cost of imports.

Mr Khattak said the water availability and shortage data would be presented at a meeting of a committee on Sept 27.

Since the provinces had not come up with their water availability projections, shortage estimates would be finalised by the committee, he said.

He said availability in Indus River had been estimated at 50 per cent, Kabul 60 per cent, Jhelum 55 per cent and Chenab 80 per cent. About 200, 000 acre-feet of water will be available from the eastern rivers. System losses have been estimated at 10 per cent.

The Irsa engineer said the carry-forward from Kharif had been estimated at 7.6 million acre-feet.

Sources said the technical committee had worked out the shortage estimate at 38.75 per cent, anticipating availability of around 22MAF against a requirement of about 34.5MAF. The water accord of 1991 envisages more than 37MAF for Rabi season.