JOHANNESBURG: Democracy in Africa and the credibility of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) — a programme to kick-start the economic and social development of the continent — will be tested as Nigeria goes to the polls to elect a new government over the coming weeks.

It is common wisdom that roughly one in five Africans is Nigerian. With 120 million people, Nigeria has the largest population in Africa. Of these, 60 million are eligible to vote in the country’s general elections, which kicked off at the weekend.

While elections for the legislatures were held on Saturday, those to elect the president and governors of the country’s 36 states will take place next week.

Since its independence from Britain in 1960, Nigeria has never been able to successfully transfer political power from one civilian government to the next. Democratic elections have always been followed by interventions by the country’s military that has then clung to power for years.

Nigeria only returned to civilian rule four years ago, when its incumbent president Olusegun Obasanjo — a former military ruler — was elected into office.

If the present elections are successfully completed and another civilian government takes power in Nigeria, it will be a sign that democracy is taking hold in the country and the continent, say analysts on African affairs. Obsanjo and his party are tipped to retain power in Nigeria.

Along with South African president Thabo Mbeki, Obasanjo, is one of the main architects of the continent’s main economic and social development programme, NEPAD.

In a nutshell, NEPAD calls for good political and economic governance from African leaders, in exchange for greater investment and better trade deals from the wealthy nations. A failure of democracy in Nigeria would cast doubt on the ability of African leaders to ensure good governance in their countries, and the continent, said an analyst.

“If democracy in Nigeria fails, it could well spark a crisis from which NEPAD will not be able to recover,” said the director of the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) in Johannesburg, Chris Landsberg last week.

“South Africa and Nigeria are the big powers in Africa,” he said.

While South Africa is the industrial and mining powerhouse on the continent, Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa. It is also seen as a stabilizing influence in West Africa, where a series of conflicts has broken out within and between some of its neighbours.

As Nigerians headed for the polls, more than 350 delegates — including Landsberg — were wrapping-up their work at Africa Conference on Governance, Democracy and Elections in Johannesburg last week.

The conference drew up a set of guidelines that Africans could use to assess the free and fairness of elections on the continent, explained Landsberg.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service.