PAKISTAN’S transition to domestic sources of electricity is a welcome development for a country that has long been vulnerable to global energy shocks due to its reliance on imported fuels. The latest figures shared by Power Minister Awais Leghari suggest a structural shift in the power sector: nearly three-quarters of electricity generation now comes from indigenous resources, with the government targeting more than 96pc by 2034. This transformation owes largely to what Mr Leghari described as a “people-led solar revolution”.

Early government decisions to invest in nuclear, hydropower and local coal have also played a big role in increasing self-reliance. For decades, the power sector was trapped in a cycle of costly fuel imports, rising tariffs and recurring shortages, while keeping the economy exposed to global energy price shocks. The crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underscored these risks as the rise in global energy prices drove headline inflation to nearly 40pc and rapidly drained foreign exchange stocks. If the current trajectory is sustained, the ongoing transition would significantly strengthen Pakistan’s energy security.

Yet the picture is more complex than what the numbers suggest. This shift to local electricity sources has not resolved the structural challenges affecting the power sector’s sustainability — unaffordable prices, outages, elevated system losses and theft and circular debt — across the supply chain. The transition towards domestic sources of electricity has, in fact, exacerbated these issues.

With more than 12,000 MW out of an estimated 20,000 MW of rooftop solar installed behind the meter, daytime demand for electricity from the national grid has fallen sharply. While easing pressure on those adopting solar, it has added to surplus generation capacity and complicated the power sector’s finances, contributing to rising tariffs and the burden of circular debt for consumers who rely on the grid.

The recent move to replace net-metering with a net-billing regime for rooftop solar is likely to accelerate the shift towards behind-the-meter installations, as consumers increasingly optimise solar systems for self-consumption to avoid outages and higher tariffs rather than export surplus electricity to the grid due to inadequate incentives. That said, the success of this transition will largely depend not only on the sources of electricity Pakistan produces, but also on how effectively the power system delivers it to consumers as well as government policies to bring back off-grid consumers.

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2026