The on-going Middle East crisis coupled with the Pak-Afghan war and an increase in fuel prices is unlikely to give any major hit to the sales of two-wheelers.

As the twin conflicts wage on, auto makers fear disruptions and shipping delays in the arrival of imported parts, logistic congestion, high freight and war risk charges and increased transportation cost owing to the hike in high-speed diesel rate, now fixed at Rs335.86 per litre, as of last Saturday.

The above crisis may push up prices of imported raw material, thus forcing the assemblers to raise prices of two-wheelers. However, market people maintain that despite rising prices, motorcycles may continue to remain an affordable option for the buyers towards fuel and time saving compared to moving into four-wheelers and public and private transport.

In the last few years, car owners have already started keeping a 70–150cc bike in their houses and bungalows. A further rise in petrol price may push more car owners to keep a new or a slightly older model to save the cost of running on higher engine capacity cars and sports utility vehicles.

As fuel costs rise, market personnel believe two-wheeler demand will remain strong as the only form of affordable transport

In this situation, the demand for 70cc bikes may further go up. The prices of second hand bikes are already high due to higher prices of new bikes. After fresh petrol price shocks — the demand for used bikes may further crawl up.

Bike sales also depend a lot on rural buying based on better crops like wheat, cotton, rice and sugarcane. A good crop is enough for the growers to replace an old bike with new one.

Bike sector expert, Mohammad Sabir Sheikh said that there is no denying the fact that the Afghan-Pakistan and Iran-USA-Israel wars have shattered the buyers’ sentiments as the footfall of buyers in the markets has slowed down, leaving traders frustrated also.

However, demand for two wheelers has always remained upbeat in difficult times, especially when car prices go up. Prospects of good bike sales still exist in the upcoming months in view of a massive rise in imports of parts and accessories by bike assemblers despite claims of record high localisation. Import of complete and semi knocked down (CKD) kits by the two-wheeler assemblers has swelled by 74 per cent to $43m in 7MFY26 from $25m in the same period last fiscal.

Consumers feel that motorcycles are still a better option in reaching their destinations amid deteriorating road infrastructure and dearth of public and private transport especially in Karachi. However, rising cases of bike snatching and stealing of new and used bikes haunt bike buyers in Karachi.

Atlas Honda Limited (AHL), the manufacturer of Japan’s Honda bikes, has continued to break new sales records since September 2025 amid the exit of Japan’s Yamaha motorcycle last year.

Despite high prices, AHL sold a record 157,059 units in January 2026. The bike giant’s total sales in 7MFY26 surged to 945,801 units from 703,226 units in the same period last fiscal year. Sales of other assemblers like Japan’s Suzuki and Chinese bike maker, United Motorcycle, stood at 20,282 and 101,703 units as compared to 13,910 and 80,370 in the above period.

Sales of some Chinese bike assemblers have improved while others have been struggling for their survival as they failed in providing a quality bike. As per data of large scale manufacturing, the country’s overall bike production during July-December FY26 rose by 41pc to 1.9 million units from 774,461 in the same period last fiscal.

That said, the petrol price hike may not help in reviving electric bike sales in a big way due to their higher prices and other issues. Only per cent of petrol engine buyers have shifted towards e-bikes, while the share of e-bikes being purchased by young girls also stands at 1pc of the total two-wheeler market.

Mr Sheikh said that the demand for e-bikes has been more impressive in various cities of Punjab as compared to the lackluster demand in Karachi. Small tyres and low road clearance of electric bikes do not emerge as a problem in the cities of Punjab where the roads are much better than those of Karachi.

The Karachi city administration has failed to maintain road development work as infrastructure projects have been facing inordinate delays, while reconstruction and repair works of many roads and main arteries are still in shambles.

“I think the overall working environment in Punjab, especially in Lahore, with salaries and incomes are much better than Karachi,” he said, adding that crime rate is also higher in Karachi than in Lahore.

In Karachi, bike buyers are frustrated due to negligible public and private transport in terms of actual requirement of this city, which forces them to shift towards new and used two-wheelers.

One of the negative aspects about electric bikes is their negligible resale value, “Once a buyer buys the electric bike from a showroom — its value literally sheds by 40–50pc.”

Despite some hardships, he said total production of electric scooters and motorbikes in the country has crossed the 100,000 units mark in 2025 in which the share of electric scooters is 94pc. A number of companies are assembling electric bikes by totally depending on imported parts and accessories. He said 70cc bikes hold the major share of 56pc followed by 32pc by 125cc, 10pc by 100cc, and 2pc by 150cc out of total bikes sales.

The price of 70cc bikes in Pakistan (Chinese and Japanese assembled) range around Rs100,000–160,000 while 100cc bikes carry a price tag of Rs200,000. The price of 150cc bikes hover between Rs150,000–300,000. Surprisingly, the import of completely built up motorcycles has also risen to $1.67m in July-January FY26 from $1.34m in the same period last fiscal, data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics stated.

Imported bikes are parked at the showrooms of Akbar Road, the hub of used and new motorcycles in Karachi. Chinese 250-750cc bikes have been arriving in the country followed by used heavy bikes from Japan and the USA since the newer generation is more keen on these models.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, March 8th, 2026