A DEVASTATING conflict pitting Iran against the US and Israel may have been averted for now, but unless there is a long-term resolution addressing the underlying tensions, particularly between Tehran and Washington, a fresh conflagration may not be too far off. What started out as protests by traders against Iran’s plummeting economy in late December morphed into large anti-government demonstrations. As some of these protests turned violent, the security forces responded harshly, resulting in the deaths of several protesters; the actual numbers are hard to verify due to an information blackout in Iran. However, the Islamic Republic’s external foes, primarily the US and Israel, sought to manipulate genuine domestic rage against economic distress into a regime change operation. At one point, war seemed imminent, with President Donald Trump saying that the US was “locked and loaded”. Yet on Jan 14, the US leader rowed back, claiming that Iranian officials had told him that protesters would not be executed. He even expressed gratitude to Iran. While Mr Trump’s foreign policy decisions may seem inconsistent, some saner voices within the US administration might have cautioned against attacking Iran. Such a move would have sent global energy prices in a tailspin, while American troops in the region, as well as Israel, could have been within the reach of Iranian missiles. There are also reports that America’s Gulf allies advocated de-escalation. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin also called upon Israeli and Iranian leaders to “quickly de-escalate”.

Yet the core issues between the US and Iran remain. Primarily, Mr Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign has brought the Iranian economy to its knees, causing immense pain to ordinary citizens. His threats to slap further tariffs on any country that trades with Iran will only make matters worse for Tehran. If the US and its Western allies want Iran to negotiate in good faith, this economic war must be brought to an end and Tehran should be given sanctions relief. The scheme of regime change in Iran should also be dropped. If there is to be change in Iran, it is the Iranian people that should be heralding it, not foreign states. Yet Iran’s ruling elite must also revisit their policies both in the short and long term. This should include reprieve for protesters, as well as efforts to address popular demands, and better manage the battered economy.

Published in Dawn, January 19th, 2026