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WHEN wars rage, children become the most tragic and unnecessary victims. Among the worst horrors of the current Middle East conflict are the 170-plus people, most of them schoolgirls, killed in a missile attack on a school in southern Iran. This is an unimaginable toll that the world has somehow become inured to, especially in the wake of the Gaza war, when one child was killed every hour on average, for a grim total of well over 20,000, according to Save the Children.
As conflicts spread and threaten to endure indefinitely, children, even when not in the direct line of fire, will suffer incredibly.
This reminder of the bleak prognosis for the next generation came with reporting on Pakistan’s progress tackling polio. The country has much to celebrate as polio cases decline. But this paper last week reported that these gains may be lost due to the ongoing Pak-Afghan conflagration, as 120,000 children in southern KP are missing out on vaccinations due to the security situation. The virus rebound there could threaten a wider polio resurgence in the country.
Missed vaccinations are but one consequence for children raised amidst conflict. Malnourishment, birth defects due to war-linked pollution, disrupted schooling, long-term mental health challenges — all these will affect children both in and beyond conflict zones, with lasting consequences for individuals’ and countries’ health, development and prosperity.
Children, even if not in the direct line of fire, will suffer incredibly.
Unto itself, this violation of children’s basic rights is a tragedy, which should in the 21st century be unacceptable and cause enough to limit conflict. But for those not swayed on humanitarian grounds alone, it is worth emphasising the serious implications of stressed childhoods for national prosperity and economic productivity. The cost of missed vaccines alone is staggering. According to Gavi, for every dollar invested in vaccination in low-income countries, $16 are saved in healthcare costs and from lost productivity and low wages. That number shoots up to $44 if broader benefits — such as long-term costs linked with managing disability — are factored in.
The numbers associated with missed schooling are more material. In a 2020 OECD Education Working Paper, Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann estimated the costs of a few months’ school closures in the first phase of the Covid pandemic: students in primary and secondary schools were expected to see three per cent lower incomes over their lifetimes, while national GDPs were forecast to have 1.5pc lower growth for the remainder of this century. Imagine how those numbers might multiply if all the conflicts raging right now — with missed or disrupted schooling, destroyed schools, dead teachers — are also accounted for.
Add to this the mental health toll, which will affect children from all backgrounds, even those not directly in conflict areas. It is well understood that children who experience war (directly, or even on the news) are more likely to suffer from long-term chronic anxiety and depression. The WHO last year estimated that one billion people are living with mental health disorders, at a cost of $1 trillion to the global economy. One in every seven people was living within five kilometres of a recorded conflict in 2025, a number that has surely surged of late. The future mental health impact for individuals is painful to consider, and the resulting cost to economies will be debilitating.
Those reading this in areas far from conflict zones should not feel buffered. As security issues proliferate, funding will increasingly be diverted to military spending at the expense of education and healthcare for the wider population. Pakistan is underprepared for a future in which today’s children grow to be adults with long-term physical and mental health challenges and poor pedagogic gains. It doesn’t help that these children will have been raised in environments skewed by hate, polarisation and violence and will enter adulthood in economies crippled by AI and robotics. What will become of this vulnerable, jobless youth?
Unfortunately, the answer is that conflict will likely breed more conflict. For example, research has shown that youth that are underemployed or experiencing mental health challenges are more likely to be radicalised, whether by militant, violent extremist or far-right groups. This means more social fragmentation, less diplomacy and a faster recourse to violence and war.
As insecurity spreads across the region like an aggressive cancer, expect a doubling down on military spending, especially air defence systems and sophisticated drones. But equal, or arguably greater, allocations are needed to ensure the welfare and resilience of children, who must flourish today for stability, peace and prosperity to be possible tomorrow.
The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.
X: @humayusuf
Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2026
