KARACHI: Wheat importers have warned of an imminent supply gap of around 3 million tonnes and urged the government to allow immediate imports to prevent further price escalation and ensure market stability. This comes as the government maintains that current reserves are sufficient until the next harvest in early 2026 and continues to rule out imports.

In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Cereal Association of Pakistan (CAP) Chairman Muzzamil A. Chappal called for the immediate import of at least 1.5m tonnes of wheat. He emphasised the importance of a transparent and inclusive import policy that is open to all stakeholders, thereby ensuring price stability and food security.

Mr Chappal said that restricting imports solely to flour mills would distort the market, as most millers lack the financial capacity to handle large shipments. He warned that such limitations could lead to price manipulation through quota trading or partnerships with commercial importers — raising costs for consumers. In contrast, private importers have the experience and resources to procure wheat competitively without burdening public finances, he added.

He pointed to the example of 2023, when commercial importers brought in 3.7m tonnes of wheat — worth around $1bn — without any government subsidies. That experience, he argued, showed the private sector’s ability to help maintain supply and price stability in a challenging environment.

The CAP chairman also highlighted the impact of recent floods, which damaged wheat stocks in several regions and disrupted supply chains. With the next harvest potentially delayed by flood-related issues and due in March or April, he urged the government to adopt a longer-term import strategy. He noted that international wheat prices are currently in decline, making this a favorable time to place import orders. Delays, he cautioned, could lead to higher costs and increased consumer prices.

According to official data, government-held stocks — including federal and provincial reserves — total 4.8m tonnes. However, CAP estimates that the private sector has already consumed approximately 2.5m tonnes, widening the supply gap.

Meanwhile, stakeholders have criticised the previous decision by the caretaker government under Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar to allow wheat imports in 2023, despite adequate local stocks. Farmers and agricultural groups, particularly in Punjab — the country’s largest wheat-producing province — blamed that policy for crashing market prices during the arrival of the domestic harvest, causing significant losses to growers who were unable to recover production costs. They said the interim government had ignored ground realities and failed to protect the farming community’s interests.

Ensuring fair compensation for farmers remains another pressing concern. Mr Chappal noted that the Ministry of National Food Security estimates the current wheat price at Rs3,100-3,200 per maund. However, growers require at least Rs4,000 per maund to remain profitable. A carefully designed import policy, he said, could strike a balance between consumer affordability and farmer protection without distorting the domestic market.

CAP has rejected proposals to centralise wheat imports through government channels, warning that such a move would create market uncertainty.

Despite official claims of sufficient wheat availability, flour prices have surged in recent weeks. The average price of a 10kg wheat bag has risen to Rs929 from Rs640 in early August. The 20kg flour bag now costs between Rs1,810–2,350, up from Rs1,350–1,700, while fine flour is selling at Rs121 per kg compared to Rs93 per kg previously.

Published in Dawn, September 24th, 2025