IN early March, European Commission President Ursula van der Leyen announced the ambitious €800 billion project Readiness 2030. The decision was a direct outcome of the waning of the nearly eight-decade-old North Atlantic security architecture. With US President Donald Trump and his associates’ threats of a reduction in America’s financial commitments to Nato, Trump’s push for a hasty peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and the US Indo-Pacific pivot, the EU has been compelled to scale up defence spending. The announcement of the project sends a clear message to the US and the wider world: if the era of American security guarantees is coming to an end, a new era of European rearmament has begun.

For decades, Europe largely aligned itself with the US leadership in global affairs, often following Washington’s lead without developing an independent security posture. However, Readiness 2030 signals a turning point. A more confident and assertive Europe is beginning to emerge — one that seeks to act in its own strategic interests rather than climbing onto the US bandwagon.

The EU has long been an economic giant but comparatively lightweight in military terms. By strengthening its military muscle, it may adopt a more assertive foreign policy in regional and global affairs. It means that the EU is on the path to becoming a true pillar in a new multipolar world. Readiness 2030 will provide a third major military-industrial hub after the US and China. Hence, there are chances of an increased European ability to project power independently in parts of the world. For middle powers such as India, Asean, GCC and Pakistan, a Europe with stronger military capabilities and an assertive foreign policy can open up new options for security partnerships beyond the US-China rivalry.

An assertive Europe also opens up new strategic opportunities for South Asia. As Europe tries to strengthen its regional and global role, it is well placed to emerge as a trusted broker of peace. The EU has maintained a neutral stance during Pakistan-India conflicts, earning it credibility in South Asia. A more confident and active Europe can add a valuable voice to efforts aimed at preventing crises in South Asia. It can also facilitate a dialogue between Pakistan and India in lesser politicised issues such as climate security. Its engagement on both sides can help ease Pakistan-India tensions. This plan has been annou­nced at a time when EU-India trade nego-­tiations are in progress. Changing EU priorities have opened a window for New Del­hi to secure a better trade deal. Further, New Delhi might find a new partner that values ‘strategic autonomy’ and is supportive of its increasing role in global governance.

The EU and US should no longer be seen as a monolith.

Islamabad has traditionally viewed the EU and the US together under the broad label of ‘the West’. However, recent developments confirm that the interests of the EU and the US are increasingly diverging, especially on matters of global governance and security. Hence, Islamabad needs to revisit its understanding of the West. It is important for Pakistan to recognise that the EU and the US are no longer a monolith and may pursue different approaches on key international issues.

The outcome of the EU’s plan will likely expand the bloc’s defence industry, which will create a new demand for strategic partnerships. A strategically hungry Europe could serve Islamabad’s political and strategic interests well. Therefore, Islamabad must proactively engage European capitals — bilaterally — to seek strategic partnerships. The EU plans to build a market for de­­fence and seek global partnerships. If positioned well, Pakistan can offer co-production, R&D, or serve as a low-cost manufacturing hub for dual-use tech in an emerging European military-in­dustrial complex.

Also, as Europe looks to diversify its supply chains and reduce its reliance on other countries, Pakistan can position itself as a reliable partner in rare earths and the critical minerals sector. Islamabad’s move to invite investment in this emerging sector could lay the foundation for a long-term and strategic Pakistan-EU partnership.

Today, Europe is entangled in security concerns, cyber threats, migration issues, a resurgent Russia, a rising China, an estranged US, and a waning rules-based order. In this process, human rights, civilian supremacy have taken a back seat — issues that long remained major irritants between Pakistan and EU. This means Islamabad will face less scrutiny of its GSP-Plus status review at a time when Europe’s attention is firmly on its defence and security priorities. Therefore, Islamabad should avail this opportunity by recalibrating its Europe policy — while addressing the issues of human rights and civilian supremacy for its own sake.

The writer is an analyst of South Asian affairs. The views expressed are his own.

X: @itskhurramabbas

Published in Dawn, April 22nd, 2025