RIYADH: Just a year after ann­ouncing that diplomatic ties with Israel were getting closer, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince has shut down talk of normalisation as the Gaza conflict threatens to spread.

The tougher tone from Prince Mohammed bin Salman came the same day that exploding walkie-tal­k­ies killed members of Leba­n­on’s Hezbollah movement, again raising fears of a wider confrontation.

The Iran-backed group blamed Israel and has been exchanging fire with Israeli forces since October in support of Hamas.

The Saudis have previously made clear they want a path to a Palestinian state, but Prince Mohammed explicitly told the Shura Council on Wednesday that an “independent Palestinian state” is a condition for normalisation.

“We affirm that the kingdom (Saudi Arabia) will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without one,” he said.

According to Saudi government adviser Ali Shihabi, Riyadh’s position was always clear, even if “some had insinuated that it was flexible”. Prince Mohammed wanted to “eliminate any ambiguity” with his latest comments, he said.

Weeks earlier, Prince Mohammed had told US TV channel Fox News that “every day we get closer” to normalisation, although he added: “For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part.”

Israel ties unthinkable, for now

The US has pushed the idea of Saudi-Israeli normalisation, hoping to give an incentive to Israel’s right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the attacks on Gaza and at the same time gain a powerful Arab ally.

But after almost a year since the invasion of Gaza began, relations with Israel are simply unthinkable for the Saudi public, analysts say.

“The violence of the war and the atrocities committed against the Palestinians have killed the possibility that normalisation could be accepted by public opinion in Saudi Arabia,” said Rabha Saif Allam of the Cairo Centre for Strategic Studies.

According to Anna Jacobs of the International Crisis Group think tank, “Israel has crossed all the red lines and is trying to start a multi-front war, which will further destabilise the Middle East”.

Saudi Arabia initially opened talks on normalisation in an attempt to help calm the troubled region as it seeks to shift its oil-reliant economy to trade, business and tourism.

But a “spread of the conflict could affect development projects” and Saudi Arabia’s ability to attract investment, Allam said.

Prince Mohammed is now trying to “increase pressure on Israel and the US to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza”, Jacobs said.

Published in Dawn, September 22nd, 2024