EVEN before the larger data set has been released, politics has taken over and the provisional results of the latest census exercise are being called into question. Considering this is the first census since 1998, a long-awaited one that comes after at least one abortive attempt by the previous government to conduct the exercise, it is too early for public figures to start contesting the numbers. Census data is voluminous in scope and its takes time to examine it. In this case, matters are especially complicated as definitions have not always been applied uniformly across the country; it was up to the respective provincial governments to decide what definition they would apply to some census categories. As such, much confusion is circulating around the figures for the urban-rural divide, which is crucial in the formulation of many policies because provincial governments have demarcated their urban areas differently. Such definitional issues can be resolved quite easily without impacting the integrity of the data. But it is the job of experts, such as demographers, to do this, and not the politicians.

The PPP was hasty in announcing that they ‘reject’ the results of the census, even before the results were fully in. Although it is understandable that many people feel that the data is very different from what they expected, especially given the varying estimates that came out during the intercensal period, it is also true that census numbers should not be a matter of political consensus or arbitrary views. If people believe that Karachi’s population ought to have been more than what the figures reveal, the data must be challenged on the basis of hard facts and not simply because expectations were different. Data integrity issues can be addressed through closer examination, followed up with a rerun of the exercise in a small number of census blocks to tally the new findings with the existing ones. If a uniform variation is observed across a large number of blocks, then it can be surmised that there might be issues with the integrity of the data.

Many political players have a vested interest in pulling the data in one direction or the other, but it should be statisticians and demographers who should have the first say when it comes to examining the findings. One of the biggest implications the census data has is for parliamentary seat shares and the delimitation of constituencies, in addition to resource-allocation decisions. For the time being, many of the political apprehensions driving the politics around the data can be settled if an agreement is reached to freeze seat shares and constituencies for the next general election. This would be a pragmatic decision.

Published in Dawn, August 31st, 2017