Democracy in the doldrums

Published October 16, 1999

AS I write this, the generals have been in full control for three days, and have finally decided to run the show themselves without civilian intermediaries. Seizing power was the easy bit: deciding what to do with it is the hard part.

Whatever scenario ultimately plays out, one thing is clear: there are no easy options available. I have often thought that Pakistan must be one of the most ungovernable states in the world. Over the years, institutions have been destroyed by successive rulers to such an extent that achieving power has now very little to do with governing effectively. This breakdown in governance began early in Pakistan's brief and ill-starred history, and has now virtually paralysed the entire system.

Wherever we look - from the railways to the police; and from the civil bureaucracy to parliamentary democracy - an unbroken vista of institutional rubble, broken promises and failed potential meets the eye. Wherever there has been progress, it has been largely due to individual initiative and determination. True, roads, schools and hospitals have been built, but the management skills and institutional support needed to run the infrastructure have virtually been eradicated through nepotism and corruption, and public education and health have entered a state of collapse.

As a people, we have been unable to evolve a consensus about most of the fundamental issues. Even something relatively simple like changing the very colonial name of the North-West Frontier Province to Pukhtoonistan caused the collapse of the ruling PML-ANP alliance. While lip-service is paid to Urdu as a national language, the official language remains English, and the elite continue to send their children to private English-medium schools. The resulting two-track system has widened the gulf between the haves and have-nots. Successive governments have shied away from defusing the population bomb, and as a result we have one of the highest growth rates in the world. Having added over a 110 million Pakistanis to the 35 million counted in the 1951 census, we should not be surprised to find that rampant unemployment has swollen the ranks of various ethnic and religious militias that have transformed Pakistan into a powder keg.

But the most dangerous and pervasive trend to have emerged is the complete devaluation of the state's writ. In the minds of the people, there are no longer any checks and balances to curb the power of the influential. Far too often, the interests of the government of the day and the personal interests of the rulers are blurred and interchangeable. If rules are followed and laws obeyed, it is not because these are perceived to be for the common good, but out of fear of getting caught. And this fear has evaporated among the well connected as they know they will not be prosecuted. Thus, people like Nawaz Sharif and his henchmen default on billions in bank loans and evade taxes on a massive scale, bringing the economy to the verge of collapse.

In bringing the country to this sorry pass, politicians, generals, bureaucrats, feudals and industrialists have all contributed and colluded in varying degrees. Given this dismal backdrop of failure and disillusionment, one would think it would take a brave man to assume the helm of this sinking ship of state. Far from it. With scores of political parties, we have plenty of would-be rulers to choose from. Indeed, with a military interregnum now staring us in the face, many unelectable politicians are probably sitting by the phone, waiting for that call from GHQ to pick up crumbs from the high table.

While I have opposed military rule all my adult life, I must confess that it is hard to defend the likes of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto. Both have frittered away innumerable opportunities to give this benighted country decent governance, and both have created the void necessary for the army to retain its central position in Pakistan's power equation. In nearly 12 years of elected civilian rule, neither has managed to prove to the average Pakistani that democracy is immeasurably superior to dictatorship. This is why nobody is shedding a tear for the sacked Nawaz Sharif government, just as nobody lamented the dismissal of Benazir Bhutto's government three years ago.

But to be fair to both these incompetent and greedy politicians, even if they had been models of integrity and good management, the problems Pakistan faces today are of such a magnitude that I doubt they would have made much headway in solving them. Equally, the army certainly has no magic wand. Indeed, our long and painful experience of military rule indicates that they are even less equipped than our pathetic politicians to tackle the issues that face us. If past military regimes appear to be less corrupt and incompetent than elected civilian governments, it is because they were not subjected to the close media scrutiny political leaders are. Operating under tight censorship, their crooked deals and bungling escaped the public gaze.

Perhaps the saddest part of recent events is how little public resentment there has been against the coup. For all the long years under Zia's jackboot, thousands of Pakistanis demonstrated against martial law, went to jail and were flogged.

If there is a consensus over anything in this deeply divided country, it is on democracy. And yet, the army chief can today order the takeover of state institutions and the dismissal of an elected, constitutional government without worrying about any public outcry or backlash. For this state of apathy, both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto share the blame. In their two stints apiece, they have failed to deliver on a single promise. All they have done is to feather their nests and allow their creatures to fatten themselves at the trough of the public exchequer. Neither cares a fig for democratic norms, using the electoral process to grab power.

It is my guess that the army is extremely reluctant to declare martial law and abrogate the Constitution. Its high command knows very well that it has no answers to Pakistan's innumerable problems. The generals would therefore prefer to stay in the background and have a government of so-called technocrats in an open-ended caretaker arrangement, even though it is a contradiction in terms. Elections will be deferred until both mainstream parties are subjected to thorough accountability. This arrangement would be no worse than what we have been living through these past few years. The proclamation declaring the COAS to be the chief executive reflects the constitutional difficulties in putting this kind of civilian fig-leaf in place. I have no doubt Pakistan's imaginative lawyers will find a solution, and our pliable higher judiciary will swallow these arrangements without gagging.

Alas, the only people who will squeal in protest will be the out-of-work politicians who will be thrown off the gravy train.

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