PAKISTAN’S rapid population growth has become a structural drag on economic growth. With national output expanding by an average of just 1.7pc over the past three years against a population growth rate of 2.5pc, the country has effectively experienced negative growth. In simple terms, incomes are shrinking and poverty is rising. This is the reality the finance minister alluded to at a meeting with businessmen in Lahore. “If this growth rate continues, our population can reach 400m in the coming years. So, you tell me who will run this country in such a situation,” he remarked. Indeed, how can an economy under mounting demographic pressure be managed? With unemployment festering among the youth — ranging from the highly educated to the completely unskilled — Pakistan’s much-celebrated youth bulge is fast morphing into a liability instead of the promised demographic dividend. A rapidly expanding labour force, unaccompanied by sufficient job creation, can only intensify socioeconomic strains and deepen uncertainty about the economy’s future.

The minister correctly used Bangladesh as a case study. Over the past three decades, Bangladesh has sharply reduced fertility rates through sustained investments in female education, community health services and family planning outreach. That demographic transition complemented its export-led growth strategy and helped lift millions out of poverty. Pakistan, by contrast, has allowed its population policy to drift, treating it as a peripheral social concern rather than a central economic priority. It is time policymakers placed population management at the top of the reform agenda. That means reviving family planning programmes, empowering women through education and economic empowerment, aligning federal and provincial strategies and building a political consensus that rises above ideological and religiously inspired positions. Unrestrained population growth has compounded structural weaknesses: a narrow tax base, low productivity, energy sector inefficiencies, policy unpredictability and underinvestment in human capital. Without action, gains in GDP will continue to be diluted by the numbers, leaving the average Pakistani worse off. However, moderating population growth alone is not enough. The economy cannot accelerate without structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and expand exports. Population control and economic productivity reforms must go together if growth is to be sustained rather than being choked by recurring crises.

Published in Dawn, February 17th, 2026