THE world’s water cycle is veering between extremes. The World Meteorological Organisation’s latest State of Global Water Resources report finds that in 2024 only a third of river basins saw “normal” conditions. The rest swung from parched to flooded, confirming a trend of erratic flows now in its sixth year. Glaciers, too, are in retreat: 450 gigatonnes of ice vanished last year, equivalent to 1.2mm of sea-level rise. Most small-glacier regions have already passed their ‘peak water’ point, meaning they will now feed less water into rivers as the ice diminishes. In Pakistan, the Indus, which sustains over 240m people, registered above-normal discharge in 2024. But the excess is deceptive. It reflects volatility, not stability. Heavy spring rains last year triggered flash floods that flattened crops and devastated communities. This year, torrential monsoon rains again caused flooding and have done little to stabilise supplies. Meanwhile, groundwater continues to be pumped out faster than it can be replenished. In a country where agriculture swallows over 90pc of available freshwater, this volatility is not a marginal concern but an existential threat. The WMO also confirms that 2024 was the hottest year since records began. That matters especially for the Hindu Kush-Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus and are shrinking at alarming rates. As meltwater declines, Pakistan’s dependence on erratic monsoons will deepen. Too much rain brings ruin; too little brings hunger.

None of this should surprise us. The country has endured devastating floods in 2010 and 2022, which displaced millions and erased years of development. Yet little has changed since. Groundwater is unregulated; irrigation remains wasteful; urban drainage is in shambles. Water-sharing among provinces is fraught with mistrust. The Indus Waters Treaty with India, already under strain, may face new pressures as flows turn unpredictable. The lesson is that Pakistan’s water crisis is not episodic but structural. Treating floods and droughts as isolated disasters misses the point: they are both faces of the same climate-driven volatility. The country needs investment in monitoring, early-warning systems and climate-resilient infrastructure. More importantly, it needs governance reforms to manage its most precious resource equitably and efficiently. As the WMO makes clear, the global water cycle is becoming more capricious. Pakistan, still tied to a single river system, cannot afford to remain unprepared.

Published in Dawn, September 21st, 2025