ISLAMABAD: Top government and disaster management agencies put their heads together on Wednesday to prepare for a monsoon that could be “20 per cent above normal” and potentially cause extreme rainfall, glacial lake outbursts and flash flooding.

The Pakistan Meteoro­logical Department’s (PMD) forecasts also came under scrutiny at a meeting, presided over by Federal Minister for Water and Power Khawaja Mohammad Asif and attended by senior figures from the civil and military bureaucracy and disaster management agencies.

The minister said at the outset that the Met Office had predicted 10-20 per cent higher-than-normal rainfall this season, but no such situation was in sight so far. He also wondered about the veracity of the weather forecasts, sources privy to the meeting told Dawn.

“You are talking about 20 per cent above-normal monsoon, but we haven’t even seen the beginning of the monsoon,” the minister was quoted as saying.

Minister questions veracity of Met Office forecasts; provinces told to prepare for urban flooding

The PMD team, led by Dr Ghulam Rasul, insisted it stood by the forecast of “10-20 per cent above normal monsoon rainfall over the country, averaged for three months”. The meeting was told that while monsoon rains had already begun, they should not be viewed as a single, continuous event.

“The monsoon will be bumpy this year,” a PMD representative explained.

“There will be some sudden and extreme downpours [with] some longer dry spells in-between.”

The PMD reported that higher-than-average rainfall was expected over parts of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtun­khwa, Sindh, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and north-eastern Balochistan. It said that extreme rainfall events were likely to occur in the catchment areas of major rivers and other parts of the country, which could cause floods.

“There is a high probability of heavy downpours, which may generate flash flooding along the Suleman Range,” the PMD reported, adding that some heavy downpours may produce urban flooding in big cities.

Some of the stronger monsoon currents, coupled with high temperatures, could trigger glacial lake outburst floods, landslides and flash floods in upper KP and Gilgit-Baltistan, the PMD said.

The government of Sindh complained that despite the probability of higher-than-normal rainfall, the federal government had curtailed funds for flood protection schemes by 50pc, which could lead to a greater loss of life and property. It complained that provincial flood protection agencies used to get Rs1 billion for pre-emptive activities every year, which had now been reduced to Rs500 million.

As a result, major flood protection projects could not be completed, while some smaller under-construction schemes could be damaged by heavy flooding.

The Federal Flood Commission has advised that work on pre-emptive measures should be completed at the earliest and that quarters concerned should take all necessary precautions for the safe passage of flood flows.

An official statement on the meeting said that the meeting was briefed on pre-emptive measures taken to minimise the damage caused in the event of flooding.

The state of preparedness of the National Disaster Ma­n­agement Authority (NDMA) and the provincial disaster management authorities (PDMAs) was also discussed.

Wapda and railways authorities were also advised to stay alert and remain in contact with NDMA and PDMAs.

The Pakistan Army officers informed the meeting that the army was ready for rescue operations in case of floods. The standard operating procedures (SOPs) of Mangla and Tarbela Dam were also shared with all stakeholders.

The minister instructed the PMD to improve their weather forecasting so that there was ample time to deal with any emergency. The meeting was told that PMD’s forecasts were up to the mark, based on internal and international data, despite the fact that early-warning and flood-forecasting infrastructure was obsolete.

The meeting decided that encroachments restricting the free flow of rivers which may cause flooding should be removed immediately and that de-silting and removal of encroachments in nullahs passing through urban areas, particularly Rawalpindi, Multan, Sialkot, Lahore and Faisalabad, should be prioritised.

The statement said that flood plain maps, prepared by Nespak, were also distributed to the provinces, wherein the level and extent of inundation are clearly marked with respect to various scenarios of water flows in rivers.

Published in Dawn, July 14th, 2016