IRANIANS go to the polls today in what most observers believe is a race too close to call. Even though there are four candidates, the real contest is between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the conservative incumbent, and reformist candidate Hassan Moussavi whose green-coloured rallies gave a new and popular dimension to the campaigning that ended on Wednesday. Unless there is an upset, none of the four candidates — the other two being former speaker Mehdi Karroubi and former general Mohsen Rezaei — is likely to get more than 50 per cent of the vote, thus forcing a run-off. Former President Mohammad Khatami quit the presidential race in March but he boosted Moussavi's chances by throwing his weight behind him. The reformists seem to have learnt their lesson, for in the 2005 election their boycott of the polls helped Ahmadinejad. This time bands of 'green' throughout the country are urging young people to cast their votes to swing the election in Moussavi's favour.

Iran's 10th presidential election is in a sense a referendum on the hard-line president's domestic and foreign policies, which enjoy the support of Iran's powerful clerics, especially spiritual leader Ali Khamenei. The arch-conservative Council of Elders too has played its partisan role by disqualifying several candidates, including conservative Rafat Bayat, a female MP. Besides, Ahmadinejad enjoys popularity with rural people, on whose welfare he has spent a huge amount of money in violation of rules. With world oil prices down, the economic situation continues to be grim for a country which is the world's fifth biggest exporter of crude. But inflation has come down from last year's 30 per cent to 18.

The president has given no indication that he intends to give up his hard line toward the West and show flexibility on the nuclear question. Moussavi, on the other hand, stands for a flexible approach toward the West, because he believes Ahmadinejad's policies enabled America to go the UN and place Iran under sanctions, thus aggravating the economic condition. What has endeared Moussavi to young people is his pledge to improve freedom of expression and liberalise the cultural scene. There is no doubt Iran stands at a crossroads. Victory for Ahmadinejad will mean a continuation of his hard-line conservative policies and a fruitless confrontation with America which under Barack Obama seems keen to turn a new leaf in relations with Iran and the Muslim world.