THE abnormal drop in cotton output in Punjab and a report by the committee constituted by the provincial government to look into its causes have stoked an interesting debate in the province.

The committee, headed by the vice-chancellor of the Agriculture University Faisalabad, maintains that the excuse of bad weather being presented by the provincial government as a major cause for the crop’s bad performance can be, at best, valid up to a point.

The government’s excuse also flies in the face of the fact that divisions of Rahim Yar Khan, which received 10 times more rain this year than last year, still performed well. Likewise, the Multan division, which received double the amount of rain, was still able to maintain its previous year’s output.

Punjab has been responding to market realities by revising its cotton cultivation target every year, but the crop has been losing acreage faster than the revised targets

The committee also maintained that the crisis has not been limited to just this year. Data from 1992, when the country had harvested a bumper crop, indicates that national cotton production has remained stuck between 12m-14m bales, irrespective of weather conditions. And during the same period, India’s output jumped from 13m bales to over 40m bales.

But the provincial agriculture officials insist that the only difference between last year’s production of over 7m bales and this year’s 5.3m bales (so far) is weather. The climate has taken the average production down in the entire cotton belt.

In Rahim Yar Khan, average production is down to 20 maunds against 24 last year; in Rajanpur, it is 21 maunds against last year’s 25; D.G. Khan’s dropped from 22 maunds to 15; Multan’s from 23 to 16; Khanewal’s from 24 to 16; and Muzaffarghar’s from 23 maunds to 15.

According to the government, rains in August and September hit the crop on many fronts. They washed away the pesticides that had been sprayed on the crop and did not allow the next spraying exercise to take place owing to the short interval between the two showers.

The rains also diluted soil nutrients and farmers were unable to afford applying additional fertiliser. This created a conducive environment for a pest attack and caused the return of the pink bollworm after 10 years. All these factors were caused by a single source: bad weather.

The agriculture department also insists that another factor, which has been largely overlooked, is the drop in the crop’s acreage. Over the last few years, cotton acreage in Punjab has dropped from 6.2m acres to 5.5m acres. This will bring the final yield down regardless of the weather pattern.

Punjab has been responding to market realities by revising its cotton cultivation target every year, but the crop has been losing acreage faster than the revised targets.

But beyond differing on the causes of this year’s failure, both the committee and the government agree that technological innovation is necessary to save the crop.

Meanwhile, the country might not feel financial heat from having to import phutti this year because of its low international prices. Despite almost a 30pc drop in Punjab alone, phutti prices are still way below Rs3,000 per maund, and even imports (freight and duties) are not hurting the industry much. But the situation might reverse if global prices start to rise, in turn raising the price for the domestic crop’s failure.

Both also agree that this year’s challenge can turn into an opportunity if the government takes some necessary action. As a first step, it has to clean the seed sector. Currently, more than 100 BT seed varieties of unknown parentage are creating confusion in the market. These are in addition to 24 other that are awaiting the Punjab Seed Council’s approval.

With over 100 varieties doing rounds in the market and none of them providing so-called pest resistance, a crisis seems to have been inevitable.

Meanwhile, the situation will improve — at least in the seed sector — if the government enforces the Seed Act 2015 and introduces intellectual property rights into the sector. This is necessary to bring investment into the sector and restore the sanctity of the seed.

On the other hand, sellers of hybrid seeds should be forced to respond to changing climate conditions and to come up with seeds with comparative advantage if they want to sell their product in the Pakistani market.

Once this side is taken care of, other issues, like quality, marketing and business ethics, can also be looked into.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, December 28th, 2015