PORT-AU-PRINCE: It’s a cruel coincidence. On Monday, Haiti marks the fifth anniversary of a catastrophic earthquake that killed 300,000 people, but also a dangerous new stage in its political crisis.

The sitting parliament in the impoverished Caribbean nation will come to the end of its mandate and no date has been set for new elections, leaving a perilous political vacuum.

Protesters accuse President Michel Martelly of tacitly allowing the parliament to expire in order to rule by decree, while he accuses the opposition of blocking an electoral law that would allow a vote.

An attempt to build a compromise government under a new prime minister has fallen victim to the same political logjam, and street demonstrations threaten to escalate.

Last month, after a protester was killed by police as hundreds of youths tried to storm a security cordon near the presidential palace, Martelly’s friend Laurent Lamothe stood down as prime minister.

To calm tensions, the wealthy businessman, who made a fortune in African telecoms, was to have made way for a consensus government under opposition figure Evans Paul.

But, stymied by the same political crisis that made the change necessary, parliament has not been able to pass a confidence vote in the new premier and Paul’s inauguration has been postponed.

The United Nations Security Council is to send a high-level ambassadorial delegation later this month to plead for new elections, but the quake anniversary will pass with no progress.

‘Institutional void’

“We agreed to postpone the investiture, which would have provoked more trouble,” Paul confirmed to AFP.

“The president and I are working without rest to find a solution to the political crisis. I ask for every political actor to make a gesture.” It remains hard to see why the rival factions that have made it impossible to hold elections for the past three years would make concessions now, despite the rising anger in the street.

Many of Haiti’s local municipalities are already run by appointed managers rather than elected mayors, after Martelly stepped in and decreed names to replace the outgoing administrations.

And after Monday, more of the small number of remaining lawmakers in the national parliament will see their terms expire without replacements, making it impossible to form a quorum.

Without a functioning legislative, Martelly will presumably rule by decree, recalling memories of Haiti’s dark days under former “presidents for life” Papa Doc and Baby Doc Duvalier.

Martelly says he does not want this, despite his opponents’ fears, and proposed a law that would allow members of the House of Representatives to sit until April and the Senate until September.

But the opposition could not even agree to pass this measure.

“What’s worrying is the institutional void into which Haiti could fall. Out of 500 elected deputies, there will only be a dozen after Jan 12,” said Professor Lemete Zephyr of Haiti University.

Haiti has struggled to get back on its feet since the 2010 earthquake, and its progress has been hampered by a cholera epidemic likely brought to the country by UN peacekeepers.

A political stand-off — with the opposition accusing the president of trying to rig a vote and the government accusing its opponents of thwarting the electoral process — could spell disaster.

Some Haitian officials, sensing frustration in foreign capitals, fear the international community could lose patience.

“We don’t have much time,” said a former member of the electoral council, speaking on condition of anonymity. “If we can’t decide, the white man will impose a solution on us.” There seems little prospect of a large-scale international intervention beyond the continued presence of the UN peacekeeping force, but Washington has been pressing hard for rapid elections.

Published in Dawn January 11th , 2014

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