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AND then folk wonder what was the point. As Nawaz runs around bleating about roads and miniwatts and the price of fuel, the big-boy stuff is back where it belongs: with the boys.
And boy, is it good to be the boys again. Raheel goes to the US and it’s the greatest thing ever. Security-based relationship it may be, but it’s all talk of convergence and thumping the new chief on the back and GETTING THINGS DONE.
Back home, the media and sections of the political class were falling over themselves to declare Raheel the GREATEST CHIEF EVER. Is it a bird, is it a plane, no, it’s… the chief!
There’s more: Raheel isn’t just playing the part and saying all the right things, he sounds like he means it too. The enemy is within! We’re going to get them all! New Afghanistan is possible! India will not provoke us!
So give him a chance? Sure. (Though it’s not like anyone’s asking.) Can he deliver? That’s much trickier.
Assume Raheel really means it. The boys are done playing games. No more good this and bad that, no more protectorates and shielded sort, no more security trumps everything, therefore the army must predominate.
OK, so he means it. Fata is retaken — eventually, KP is pacified — eventually, Karachi is defanged — eventually. Raheel may be long gone by then, but it’s him who’d get the credit for getting the ball rolling again.
But hang on a second, what was that going on in Lahore? Was that the pecking order being reasserted? Was Imran effectively being told, yeah, thanks for all your help, but we’ll take it from here?
For all their talk, the boys are silent on the original besties, the ones with fighting India and freeing Kashmir as their reasons for being.
For there was the JuD running around the provincial capital of the most politically important province in the land, acting as if it owned the city. All black and white flags with swords and speakers that could put a rock concert to shame.
On the very day that Imran was supposed to be using to try and topple the government again. Pause and think about that for a moment: the JuD, née LeT, had plans in Lahore to which the business of toppling a government had to take a back seat.
You can imagine the TTP muttering to itself, we wouldn’t have bothered with Fata if we had known we could have had Punjab.
And that’s the problem: for all their talk, the boys are silent on the original besties, the ones with fighting India and freeing Kashmir as their reasons for being.
Which leaves you and me having to figure out on our own what kind of Pakistan the chief has in mind when he says all militants will be eliminated, but in that very week Lahore is taken over by the JuD.
So, what’s going on?
There are three possibilities. The obvious is: they don’t see LeT — throw in the Hizb and Jaish and a few others — as a problem. Militancy only became a problem because a) indiscipline broke out and b) they turned their guns on us.
But the Kashmir folk are relatively disciplined and have no interest in biting the hand that feeds it. Because they’re a different category, because they don’t belong in the militancy column, there’s no point trying to conflate issues or confuse them. Flat-out denial, then, is one possibility.
Possibility two is that the silence is less because of affection and more because of confusion. If you cut them loose, then what? If you decapitate the leadership, what kind of other risks are you unleashing?
It may be easy enough to scoff at this option — we created the monster and the monster still heeds our every call and yet we try and pretend that we’re really scared of the monster — but it is worth exploring.
Because, while the world may be incredulous, the truth is that often our boys’ policies are rooted in fear, not the machismo we project.
Factor in the latest from India too. With Modi stamping his feet in India and eyeing a slice of the pie in Kashmir, the Kashmir folk here can’t be kept muzzled. For keep them muzzled now and they lose all their credibility. And there’s nothing quite like a militant group without credibility.
So even if the boys themselves wanted to keep them muzzled, now was not the time to push too hard. (Conversely, maybe some of the boys felt that by trotting out the proxies a dismissive Modi can be incentivised to act a little more humble.)
The third option is loopy, but with promise (if you’re not particularly perturbed by a right-wing Pakistan with roots in militancy): mainstream them. Encourage them to run around and market their appeal and simultaneously nudge them to get into the politics game.
They’re too big to ask them to wrap up and go home. They’re too organised to expect them to give it all up suddenly. They’ve got too wide a network to hope they’ll call it quits. So why not encourage them to redirect their energy? And there’s nothing like politics to dissipate energy.
See how that works? Militants with guns that are firing here get eradicated; militants with guns that are silent but pointed in the right direction get to go into politics. For everyone else, normality ensues. Who says the boys don’t have a plan?
Expect, if you look at the three options masquerading as plans, what we’re really left with is: denial, fear and flat-out crazy. Welcome back, boys.
The writer is a member of staff.
Published in Dawn December 7th , 2014
Comments (51) Closed
really well analysed....you take care, the boys don't take nicely to being analysed
True. Unless JuD is also sorted out for their activities, taking the chief's word on his face value comes with apprehensions
Boys are boys and playing politics in pakistan today is the only major problem in pakistan.
Incredible that your sane voice is alllowed to go on for.so long by boys. Please tske care & thanks for removing few blindfolds in the land of pure.
Our journalists apparently are jack of all: they know everything but journalism. Every journalist is an economist, political scientist, social scientist, security analysts, and so on. And, troublingly, they are treated as such by their readers and viewers. I wish we could have more of specialists!
Good
And why is this bad for Pakistan? We also do not appreciate your tone on the elected Prime Minister of the country. Frankly I smell a bit of PTI bias here. You should give credit where it is due. Energy is the most crucial issue for Pakistan and at least the government is trying to do something about it. Army's job should be left to them.
the boys with guns relatively pointing it in the right direction will soon become a monstrous hydra devouring thousands of Pakistanis more! So in near future, we are going to have the kind of operation like in FATA against these pampered hordes in Lahore!!! oh yes, evacuate the cities and then raze them to the ground. we made error to create them and since then, we are making more errors to avoid their wrath against us and this will continue in future unless and until, we forge a cohesive strategy based on rationality and sanity.
The past cannot be changed unless author have an access to time machine wherein we all Pakistanis can sit, go back and change our past. So whatever is the past, we have to live with it and in current circumstances the best bet going forward is what author terms as flat out crazy. It is also most efficient as it has the option of making them defanged (by politicizing them) or if not keeping them away from the crazies we are currently fighting (thus avoiding the convergence of crazies).
Frankly, I don't see any problem with boys strategy for the first time in my life! So Brave chief!
Boys will be boys let 'em play their little games what do we have to lose, one more decade another generation,,
You will be in my prayers my brother. You take care and be safe...
@Amit The reason such "hypothesis" is allowed by the "boys" is because of what it really is, a hypothesis. Nothing to do with reality. The writer wanted to be a fiction writer but because he would not have made much of a career in that in pakistan he joind an english newspaper and applying fiction writing talent to political anlysis. On the othet hand, in india, fiction is made reality when comes india pakistan relationship.
Who can tell the boys that the enemy is embedded within us? Guess where the Canadian Parliament bomber tried to spend the night? In a mosque. Mosques are become the sanctuaries of terrorists. We have to cleanse them along with the Imams and replace them with scholars teaching the latest curricula. The education currently imparted to the students is useless in the world. It makes them parasites on the society where they live by spreading hatred. It is a long haul and the beginning is nowhere in sight!
Excellent read.....you could not have been more clearer.
it is interesting to see indians wishing safety and care to the writer, as if every writer that goes against army vanishes in days - i think they have not seen TV channels and govt officials openly criticising army, a thing not even happening in their country ----- to the writer, i say that army has another option too, to stand aside and do nothing, how many including writer would really and honestly want that??? the article is a bit harsh i think, to say the least....
"Expect, if you look at the three options masquerading as plans, what we’re really left with is: denial, fear and flat-out crazy. Welcome back, boys."
That about sums it up.
If further evidence is/ was required just look at the attacks in Kashmir in reaction to high voter turnout.
Looks like the Boys are priming themselves to 'Rescue Pakistan' all over again.
Whether the 'Civilian Facade' will be supplied by 'Honest Kaptaan' or 'Protector Saeed' will be apparent in the days to come.
Cyril, you never fail to impress me. That is exactly what's cooking with ASWJ being pushed into electoral politic as well. Electoral politics is going to get a lot more dirtier in times to come, left wing parties are marginalized and even critics like you and me of PTI would one day be seeing it as a savior against these hyenas.
Today india said those militants were pakistani Lashkar-e-taiba groups and they were send by pak looks like true
Excellent and impressive analysis. I thoroughly enjoyed reading it. America is doing great to eliminate Al Qaida and Taliban terrorists in the west. In the East,JuD is a volcano waiting to erupt. Snakes are snakes, will bite today or tomorrow. If India continues to tighten the screws on militant infiltration and shoots down militants one after another as it has been doing past few years, JuD/LeT will become jobless. Then it may start creating havoc inside Pakistan.
Cyril.... 'Boys with guns pointing at right direction'.... the definition of 'right direction' is a debate in itself.
Nevertheless.... good piece! Enjoyed reading. Thanks for it.
Thanks for your subtle but very clear piece. I hope it opens some eyes.
@aslam minhas what wil you sow so shall you reap
Please dont blow it out of proportion, I think you are trying to gain attention by acting brave through fabricated imaginations. Things have changed in Pakistan, even a child knows it.
All those who are not ready to mainstream themselves into the political system should be made clear that they don't have any future in the country. ONLY the country's establishment can do it. I wish establishment considers Pakistan's future keeping in view the past bitter experience of country due to the powerful establishment and creation of non-state actors in the country.
Cyril Almeida always walks away with the cake of incisive analysis. Always.
Nice article.Sanity still prevails with some.Watch out, you may be the next target, dear Cyril.
Don't be after the so called Boys just for the sake of it. If we cannot find a civilian government or leaders that can deliver then the world will gravitate towards those that can - such is the nature of international affairs.
Agreed with the writer
Fantastic piece. Wish you all the best, have always liked your writings whether I agree or not because there is intellectual honesty. The main reason I come to this site is learn about alternate views of opinion and this is what I get from your articles. Hope to see things change between India and Pakistan as well but in my opinion, it is better for both to progress separately first before trying anything ambitious, the dialogue can continue in the meantime through such fine pieces of work.
Do you know how democracy works? There are no big boys, there are only elected representatives.
Nicely done. Always a good read.
Thanks for calling a spade, a spade Mr. Almeida.
Thanks Cyril and Dawn for printing it . Always like your straight talk . Hope you are stationed in some other country. Keep up the good work.
What can't our lousy political leaders stomach a successful Chief Raheel Shareef as he knows how to do things right. We are back on central stage world of affairs as we were during good old days of President Mushraff.
Good Luck Chief.
Toronto,Canada
One of very best articles I have read on Pakistan Army and Terrorism. Nicely written and well analyzed! Job Well done!
@Moin Kamal : What central stage of the world are you talking about? As a bankrupt nation surviving on aid from other countries & where terrorists like Saeed givd lectures?
@Hassan You are so right, every body is an expert in every thing in Pakistan, and specially Politics.
@Imran Punjab has been ruled by the Shareefs for almost 20 years, Now they are trying to fix the Energy issues. Great Leader Mr Shahbaz should give it up, he is loosing it.
@sheeda bystander I am surprised that you talk of the Army as Boys, the boys do not come from some other planet they come from your homes.You people have seen the fate of IRAQ, LIBYA,SYRIA.If these Politicians keep looting the Country then the boys will have no choice.
@Moin Kamal Clueless in Toronto - "central" indeed, where no one wants to come or go, and no one gives a damn as death stalks the land. Central indeed.
Mainstreaming a bunch of right-wing loonies - has been done before, the various Jamaats are all the same people. How does that help other than to make them look sane, and make more people confused. Sidelining them is the only sane option.
"Because, while the world may be incredulous, the truth is that often our boys’ policies are rooted in fear, not the machismo we project."
very well analyzed and well written article.. but be careful because boys don't like being analyzed or criticized for their policies.
Mr. Almeida, with all due respect please stop being the mouth piece of the land grabbing genociders across the border. Although I have quite a few disagreements with JuD I have to admit, they by no means have produced any issues, you can not compare them with TTP.
It is highly dangerous for a democracy like Pakistan, that its Army Chief is negotiating with American political leadership like an independent monarch. No where in the world, you will see an Army Commander being welcomed so differently in USA. This don't auger well for Pakistan and the ruling party. Army or Army chief in any democratic dispensation world over is a subordinate institution of a country, as such, has no right to have conferences with political leadership of other countries. This should be the domain of affairs of the political leadership. The Army Chief of Pakistan is doing what with political leadership of USA; it is a big question mark?
I think the third option, which you labelled as crazy, is the most prudent in current circumstances.
Nobody is in denial or scared. We`ll cross the bridge when it comes. The author is imagining things and overplaying the big congregations of JI and JUD in Lahore. They will never pose any threat to Pakistan as they are totally different from the foreign militant outfits like ISIS, Alqaeda or TTP.
@Mian Shahid Mehmood wow what a question. ... first clear yourself on foreign policy affairs and then put a question mark. I think boys are the only hope for Pakistan.
Bravo chief
Thumbs up
When will these 'Boys' become matured & sensible Men !!
Cyril Almeida, you make things so clear. Thanks.
The most logical and apt analysis published by Dawn. Gen Raheel is being showered with accolades both by US and at home for the ongoing operation which is quite understandable as the former needs Pakistan's help for stability in Afghanistan after foreign troops leave this country. Nevertheless, the recent rally by an internationally banned terrorist organisation chief with the support of the state has raised many eyebrows both at international level and India since a major terrorist attack also took place in Uri sector during the same period. India has downplayed the attack as well as the rally at Lahore as the all important elections are being held at Kashmir, avoiding flaying of tempers which might have only helped the separatists. However, India avenging the martyrdom of its eight soldiers and taking up both issues at international level cannot be ruled out after the ongoing elections. What the Pak major establishment needs to understand is that fighting terrorism selectively is neither helping eliminating terrorism at home nor creating a conducive atmosphere for holding all important talks with India which can bring peace between both countries.
@Mian Shahid Mehmood You have hit the nail on the head.