THE state is often justifiably accused of bad planning, especially when it comes to maintaining updated figures. One example of this is the government’s inept handling of the North Waziristan IDP crisis. A fair bit of confusion surrounds the number of displaced persons who have left North Waziristan in the wake of the military operation. The number of IDPs seems to be far greater than what earlier estimates of the tribal agency’s population suggested. As reported on Saturday, officially registered IDPs are now close to the million mark, while it was earlier thought that North Waziristan’s total population itself was around half this figure. Why is there such a huge discrepancy? For one thing, the population projections are based on the 1998 census, which is the last one conducted. Since there has been no head count in the country for the last 16 years, such a wild variance in figures was only to be expected. Along with the fact that the whole country’s population estimates are based on an outdated census, North Waziristan’s lack of accessibility, thanks to the militants’ infestation, has meant that the tribal region has become an information black hole. Aside from reliable population numbers, it is also, for example, difficult to get verifiable information on non-combatant drone deaths or children missed out in anti-polio campaigns in the agency. The discrepancy between the original estimates and the present number of registered IDPs may also be due to the fact that people may have registered themselves or their families multiple times. In fact, those who have North Waziristan domiciles but live elsewhere too may have registered themselves. What is clear from all this is that the state has been working with seriously flawed numbers, that when the military operation began even the basic details had not been confirmed.

Verification of the registered IDPs is under way, although the exercise is proceeding at a slow pace. We hope that after the process is complete the state has a better idea of the numbers it is dealing with. Providing relief to such a large body of humanity is no easy task, and it is made all the more difficult when the government doesn’t have a fair idea of the number of people it has to assist. The North Waziristan experience should serve as a lesson about how accurate data is essential not only for routine planning, but also when it comes to dealing with humanitarian disasters.

Published in Dawn, July 20th, 2014