WASHINGTON: Is blood really thicker than water? Ordering the execution of one’s uncle, as Kim Jong Un did on Dec. 12, is brutal in any culture, but especially so in a place like North Korea, where even decades of totalitarian rule have not worn away strong Confucian traditions of filial piety.

As the dust begins to settle on Pyongyang’s most public display of raw power in decades, the next big question is what will happen to the rest of the Kim family. Here are Kim’s five most important family members, and their likelihood of survival.

Name: Kim Kyong Hui

Relation: Aunt

Likelihood of survival: Very Good

Kim Kyong Hui married Jang in 1972, but they had reportedly been estranged for some time. Some suggest she was irked by Jang’s alleged womanszing; others say that their daughter’s 2006 suicide strained the marriage. In any event, it makes sense for Kim, who holds the rank of four-star general and is a secretary of the ruling Workers Party, to distance herself from her disgraced husband. It seems as if she has succeeded in doing so, at least for now: On Dec. 19, South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported that Pyongyang had included Kim Kyong Hui’s name on the list of a funeral planning committee for a deceased party official. While the 67-year-old Kim Kyong Hui did not appear in footage of the Dec. 17 commemoration of the second anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death, this is not necessarily a sign that she has lost favour with her nephew: She is thought to be in failing health, which could have prevented her from attending.

Names: Kim Sul Song and Kim Yeo Jong

Relation: Half-sister and Sister

Likelihood of survival: Good

Like his father, Kim Jong Il, who relied on his sister Kim Kyong Hui for support and advice, Kim Jong Un may be giving increased responsibility to his sisters. The 38-year-old Kim Sul Song, a favorite of Kim Jong Il, was rumored to be one of the “masterminds” behind the Jang purge, according to an unnamed source quoted by Hankyoreh, a South-Korean newspaper. Almost nothing is known about her, but there’s also little reason to think she’d be executed.

As a possible sign of his confidence, Kim Yeo Jong is entrusted with “protecting and managing the affairs” of the daughter of Megumi Yokota, the most famous of the citizens abducted from Japan in the 1970s and 1980s, according to the Japan Times. The fate of the abductees is probably the most important issue for Japan’s bilateral relationship with Pyongyang, so Kim Yeo Jong’s role would be symbolically important for both sides.

Name: Kim Jong Chol

Relation: Brother

Likelihood of survival: Excellent

North Korean defector Lee Yun Keol claimed the 32-year-old Kim Jong Chol was the chief executioner of Jang’s purge. This is somewhat surprising, given that Kim Jong Il reportedly passed him over for the throne, identifying him as “too effeminate” to run North Korea. Lee, who runs a private research organisation, also claimed that Kim Jong Chol “personally led” a team of soldiers “hand-picked” from Kim Jong Un’s bodyguards to arrest Jang, and that he was personally “armed with a pistol” when he went to arrest his uncle. No one in Pyongyang would dare call Kim Jong Chol a sissy now.

Name: Kim Jong Nam

Relation: Half-brother

Likelihood of survival: Not Good

Being the eldest male in the family would normally have made the 42-year-old Kim Jong Nam the top choice for succession. But in May 2001, his arrest at Tokyo’s Narita Airport — as he attempted to enter Japan on a forged Dominican Republic passport — publicly embarrassed Kim Jong Il. (Kim Jong Nam had wanted to take his son to Tokyo Disneyland.) Kim’s chances were further worsened by the stigma of his mother Song Hye Rim, of whom his grandfather Kim Il Sung reportedly strongly disapproved.

Partially because of this, and because Jang had no male heir, he and Kim Kyong Hui reportedly played a large role in raising Kim Jong Nam. Kim Jong Nam, therefore, probably has strong feelings about his siblings gunning down his father figure. And Kim Jong Un may see his half-brother as a threat.

—By arrangement with Foreign Policy-The Washington Post