• Numbers reveal Pakistan’s exports stand losses at 0.6pc ($222.5m) against 10pc ($173m) recorded by Kabul since Oct 10
• World Bank data shows Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan down from 54pc in 2023 to 45pc in 2024
• Experts see restrictions as an opportunity for Afghan importers to tap alternative markets

THE suspension of bilateral trade between Islamabad and Kabul for nearly two-and-a-half months has hit Afghani­stan far harder than Pakistan, with export losses running several times higher for Kabul, calling attention to the uneven economic toll of the prolonged disruption.

Pakistan–Afghanistan relations have deteriorated amid ten­s­ions over the banned Tehr­eek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). After successive rounds, Paki­stan declared the talks effectively over on November 7, after which Afghanistan suspended trade ties, while Pakis­tan had already closed its border following the October clashes.

Trade data shows that the export losses for Afghanistan have reached around 10 per cent since October 10, 2025, compared with about 0.6pc for Pakistan due to the suspension of bilateral trade.

Nearly 46pc of Afghanistan’s total exports are destined for Pakistan, including a sizable volume routed onward to India via the Wagah border, whereas Afghanistan accounts for only around 3.46pc of Pakistan’s global exports, according to trade data. This assessment does not include transit trade, which represents about 40pc of Afghanistan’s total imports, a factor that further places Kab­ul in a disadvantaged position.

India has emerged as Kabul’s second-largest export destination, accounting for around 40pc of Afghanistan’s total exports, despite being a non-bordering country. By contrast, exports to Afghanistan’s other three neighbours remain marginal, standing at 1.94pc for Iran, 3.14pc for Uzbekistan, and just 0.37pc for Tajikistan.

This pattern highlights the heavy concentration of Afghanistan’s exp­ort markets in Pakistan and India, and the critical role of the Wagah border for Afghan exports routed onward to the Indian market.

Kabul may divert a portion of its remaining imports to Central Asian states, Iran, and India, but it would struggle to find alternative markets for selling its fruits and vegetables, which accounted for 71pc of total exports in 2024, according to the World Bank estimates.

Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan

Before the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Pakistan had a strong trade surplus with Afghanistan, exporting $1.019 billion vs. $579 million in imports in FY21. However, exports dropped to $762m in FY22, slightly rebounded to $953m in FY23, and rose to $1.390b in FY24. Medi­cines, rice, and cement consistently remained the top export items.

Since October 10, however, the suspension of trade has begun to translate into measurable losses. Pakistan’s average export losses are estimated at $222.5m, equivalent to about 0.6pc of its total exp­orts, while Afghani­stan’s losses are estimated at $173m, amounting to aro­und 10pc of Kabul’s average annual exports to the world, underscoring the sharply unequal economic impact of the disruption.

Alternative to exports

Historically, Afgha­nis­tan has managed to find alternatives to Pakistani goods whenever imports were restricted or borders were closed. The current suspension of trade is therefore providing Kabul with an opportunity to push Afghan importers towards alternative suppliers, potentially accelerating a shift that could prove difficult to reverse even after borders reopen.

President of the Afghanistan–Pakistan Joint Chamber of Comm­erce (APJCC), Khan Jan Alokozai, said that Afghan traders were now placing cement orders with Iran, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, noting that Iranian cement was available at lower prices than Pakistani supplies.

On pharmaceuticals, Mr Alokozai said, “Imp­orters had started sourcing medicines from Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Iran, while Afghanistan had also begun importing medicines from India via air cargo. At present, Pakis­t­ani pharmaceutical products still account for aro­und 60–70pc of Afgha­n­i­stan’s market, but that sha­re is now under pressure.”

Afghanistan’s exports

In the post-Taliban per­iod, Afghanistan’s exports to Pakistan stood at $795n in FY22, increased to $893m in FY23, fell sharply to $539m in FY24, and then recovered to $612m in FY25, keeping Pakistan as Afghanistan’s single largest export market. This trajectory is often overlooked in discussions on bilateral trade, despite its importance in understanding the depth of Afghanistan’s dependence on the Pakistani market.

According to a World Bank report, Pakistan acc­ounted for 45pc of Afgh­a­n­istan’s total exports in 2024, down from 54pc in 2023, but still far ahead of any other destination. The report notes that food and coal dominated these shipments, together making up 63pc of Afghanistan’s exp­orts to Pakistan.

Exports to India via Wagah

After Pakistan, India has emerged as Afg­h­an­istan’s second-largest export destination, with Afghan exporters relying on a mix of routes to access the Indian market. Official data shows that between 2021–22 and 2025–26, Afghanistan’s exports with a declared value of Rs156.8b ($611.11m) were transported through Pak­i­stan to India via the Wagah border and Karachi port to external markets, involving a total of 11,355 trucks.

A breakdown of the figures indicates that Wagah handled the bulk of this traffic, accounting for 10,031 trucks carrying exp­orts valued at Rs127.4bn ($507.66m). In comparison, Karachi port facilitated 1,324 trucks with a dec­l­a­red export value of Rs29.36bn ($103.45m) over the same five-year period.

Afghan transit trade

Afghanistan’s total imp­ort bill stood at $10.8b in 2024, of which Pakistan accounted for $3.496bn, or 32.37pc of total imports. The remaining share was sourced from a widening pool of suppliers, reflecting a gradual diversion of Afghan transit and imports towards Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, India, China, and the UAE.

In recent years, Pakistan has placed several smuggling-prone items on the negative list for transit cargo, tightening controls on Afghan shipments. As a result, the value of Afghan imports transiting through Pakistan declined sharply, falling to $2.432bn in FY24 from $6.701bn in FY23, and dropping further to $1.012bn in FY25. With the current suspension of trade, industry estimates suggest the figure could slip below the $1bn mark in FY26, deepening the shift in Afghanistan’s import routes and suppliers.

Urging both governments to facilitate trade, Alokozai said that businessmen have little choice but to seek alternative routes whenever disruptions or hurdles emerge from either side. “Transit trade through Pakistan has repeatedly faced unprecedented obstacles due to shi­fting policies, which in turn raised demurrage cos­ts for importers,” he said.

In recent years, Pakistan signed transit trade agreements with several Central Asian States, but the current suspension of trade with Afghanistan is also disrupting these emerging corridors.

Ex-Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Muhammad Ish­aq said the disruption has also stalled planned industrial relocation. “The segments of Punjab’s textile industry had begun shifting operations to Uzbe­k­is­tan, but the current uncertainty has brought that process to a halt,” he noted.

Detailed version can be accessed at Dawn.com

Published in Dawn, December 31st, 2025