PLANES and bombs are not the end of it. New Delhi is also up to mischief on another front. This weekend, without prior intimation, which officials say it is bound to provide under the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty, India virtually blocked water from flowing into the Chenab in Pakistan, reducing water availability for crops this side of the border. Punjab irrigation officials said Pakistan’s waters were being used to fill up three Indian reservoirs with a total capacity of 1.2 MAF, and there was a possibility that the stored water would be released without warning, causing dangerous flooding downstream. “If they keep filling their dams and avert discharging, they may leave us without water for four to five days more,” an official remarked. Meanwhile, India had also started the process of augmenting the reservoir holding capacity at its Salal and Baglihar projects in Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir. A Reuters report stated that ‘reservoir flushing’ was underway at the two projects to enhance their capacity to hold water, and that if other dams also started doing the same, Pakistan’s water share could be adversely affected in the future. This, of course, is a serious situation that needs constant monitoring by Pakistan. The Chenab irrigates vast tracts of farmland in Punjab, and India’s actions are aimed at sabotaging Pakistan’s water and food security. If they continue to escalate, water disputes between the two nations have the potential to trigger a wider, more serious conflict in the future.

The Modi regime, whose judgment has been clouded by hubris ever since India’s economic clout started inviting international attention, lit a fuse after making the unilateral decision to ‘suspend’ the IWT. Its actions have placed the treaty’s status in uncertainty, at least for now. This is a dangerous game for New Delhi to be playing. Water is a lifeline for Pakistan’s economy, and any actions India takes to try to alter its supply in violation of the IWT will be taken as a provocation to war by Pakistan. Islamabad has made this clear. If India continues to push the boundaries of acceptability, Pakistan may soon face a situation where its options may be limited to kinetic measures. Climate change has presented the country with severe existential crises that it needs to overcome in order to protect the lives and livelihoods of its people. Any foreign act or aggression that imperils Pakistan’s waters and therefore the well-being of its people cannot be countenanced.

Without further ado, Pakistan needs to mount an aggressive legal challenge against India’s move to ‘suspend’ the IWT and either compel or convince it to reverse its decision. Diplomatic channels should continue to be utilised to prevent any serious violation of water-sharing agreements, which have the potential to place millions on both sides in peril. The IWT has survived wars and conflict over issues much more serious than the one manufactured most recently by New Delhi. It cannot be simply undone by one side over flimsy pretexts. India must be held to its commitments.

Published in Dawn, May 8th, 2025