ISLAMABAD / NEW DELHI: Postponement of the upcoming Saarc (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit in Islamabad in November looked certain on Wednesday as three more members — Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan — followed in India’s footsteps, pulling out of the leaders’ meeting citing concerns over ‘terrorism and external interference’.

An announcement in this regard by Saarc’s current chair Nepal remains a mere formality, which was being delayed because the Nepalese foreign minister and foreign secretary were in New York in connection with the UN General Assembly session. The formal announcement is expected on their return.

A senior Pakistani diplomat told Dawn that Nepal was being consulted.

Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz, according to Radio Pakistan, said the postponement was likely, but the Saarc Secretariat was yet to notify it. Quoting Saarc rules, he said, a summit cannot be held if any member refuses to attend.

India had a day earlier expressed its inability to attend the meeting because of non-conducive environment in the region created by “increasing cross-border terrorist attacks and growing interference in internal affairs of member states by one country”.

The Indian decision is attributed to the Sept 18 Uri military camp attack in which 18 soldiers were killed. The latest phase in Pakistan-India tensions started with the eruption of protests in held Kashmir in July, but the situation worsened after the Uri attack.

Reports suggest New Delhi’s move to isolate Pakistan in multilateral forums was under way much before the Uri attack

Delhi has been a reluctant participant in the preparatory process for the summit. India sent Home Minister Rajnath Singh in August for a ministerial meeting, but he left early after a verbal duel with the host Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on the Kashmir dispute. India later downgraded its participation in the finance ministers’ meeting.

And whereas only India’s refusal was enough to block the holding of the summit, Delhi synchronised its move with other like-minded members in the bloc to give an impression of Pakistan’s isolation in the region — a goal that the BJP government has been publicly professing. India has recently broadened its terrorism concerns related to Pakistan and now talks about threats to the neighbourhood.

India has in the past forced postponement of Saarc summits on four occasions — in 1991 (sixth summit in Colombo), 1999 (11th summit in Kathmandu), 2003 (12th summit in Islamabad), and in 2005 (13th summit in Dhaka). On two occasions, the reasons given were linked to Pakistan. India refused to attend the 11th summit on the pretext of coup in Pakistan and the 12th summit because of the prime minister’s schedule.

On those occasions, India used the participation card to pressure the hosts.

“India has a track record of impeding the Saarc process,” said Foreign Office spokesman Nafees Zakaria.

He feared that the Indian attitude would negatively impact the welfare and betterment of the region that already had the world’s highest concentration of the poor.

He insisted that India was doing this to divert the world’s attention from the volatile situation in the Valley, which continues to be roiled by protests despite Indian authorities’ high-handed security crackdown.

The letters sent by Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Bhutan to the Saarc chair closely echoed with India and alluded to Pakistan while expressing their concerns over terrorism and external interference.

“The growing interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh by one country has created an environment which is not conducive to the successful hosting of the 19th Saarc summit in Islamabad in November 2016,” the Bangladesh government said.

Dhaka has been at odds with Islamabad since PM Sheikh Hasina’s government came to power and resumed “war crime trials” of individuals suspected of supporting the Pakistan Army during East Pakistan’s separatist movement, which led to creation of Bangladesh.

Afghanistan, meanwhile, conveyed President Ashraf Ghani’s unavailability for the summit. “Due to increased level of violence and fighting as a result of imposed terrorism on Afghanistan, the president with his responsibilities as the commander-in-chief, will be fully engaged, and will not be able to attend the summit,” Kabul said.

Bhutan found an excuse in the “recent escalation of terrorism in the region” that it believed had “seriously compromised the environment for the successful holding” of the summit in Islamabad. Bhutan further said it shared concerns of some member states on the “deterioration of regional peace” because of terrorism.

Delhi for postponement

India says the summit has to be postponed as three other member states have decided to pull out of the meet.

“In the current case, not just India but Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan have also written to [the] current chair of Saarc, Nepal, that they are unable to participate in the Saarc summit, which means there is no option but to postpone it,” External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup was quoted as saying.

India’s move to isolate Pakistan in multilateral forums has been under way much before the Uri attack. India is to host the BRICS – which includes Russia, Brazil, China and South Africa apart from India – in Goa on Oct 15. But it has decided not to invite Pakistan to the meeting even during the traditional outreach, which would have been normally involved the Saarc member states.

“Riled by Islamabad’s global outreach on Kashmir, New Delhi is planning to isolate Pakistan in the global arena on the issue of terrorism,” The Indian Express reported on Aug 30.

Indian government sources told the paper at the time that Pakistan was to be excluded from the BRICS regional outreach. “Pakistan will not be part of the regional outreach,” the paper quoted sources as saying way before the Uri assault.

BRICS has a tradition of having an outreach event with the region where the host country is located. At Fortaleza in Brazil, Latin American countries were called for an outreach in 2014, which was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first multilateral outing. In 2015, Russia had invited all the Central Asian countries for an outreach event in Ufa.

This time, instead of the Saarc countries, which would have included Pakistan, the Indian government has decided to invite the BIMSTEC countries, the paper said.

This was a significant change of approach since Mr Modi’s initial days after assuming office when he had invited all Saarc leaders, including Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, for the oath-taking ceremony. There was a move to invite the Maldives and Afghanistan as special invitees to the meeting, since they were the two Saarc countries other than Pakistan, which were not members of BIMSTEC (The Bay of Bengal Initiative of Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation).

Dawn’s correspondent in New Delhi contributed to this report

Published in Dawn September 29th, 2016