One of the major challenges facing Pakistan’s farmers is the limited range of field crops cultivated in both the Kharif and Rabi seasons. This narrow crop base restricts farmers’ options for switching crops when a particular crop underperforms for two to three consecutive years due to climate shocks or market failures.

In such circumstances, when a large number of farmers turn towards seemingly profitable alternatives, the resulting expansion in acreage quickly leads to market saturation because of the country’s limited domestic market and weak capacity to export surplus produce. Consequently, prices crash, leaving farmers effectively “out of the frying pan into the fire.”

A recent example is wheat. After poor returns from the 2024 and 2025 harvests, potato and vegetable cultivation expanded significantly during 2025-26, which eventually triggered a market collapse. The crisis was aggravated by Pakistan’s limited access to export markets, while the public sector lacked institutional capacity to manage surplus production. In addition, weak value addition infrastructure further constrained the country’s ability to absorb excess output.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan needs to introduce new field crops that can be grown on a large scale. Such crops should either possess strong export potential or serve as viable import substitutes in order to reduce the country’s growing import bill.

Locally sourced produce often suffers from inconsistent quality, uncertain supply, and daily price fluctuations, creating significant operational uncertainty for processors

Pakistan remains heavily deficient in oilseed production, as reflected in FY25, when the country imported edible oil and oilseeds valued at around $5 billion. This persistent import burden necessitates developing domestic alternatives.

Among potential crops, soybean stands out as a globally important oilseed. Major production is concentrated in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and China. Its nutritional composition — about 22 per cent oil, 42pc protein, and up to 30pc carbohydrates — makes it a highly versatile crop with considerable economic and nutritional significance for Pakistan.

Given these attributes, soybeans hold strong potential to reduce Pakistan’s edible oil import bill significantly. In addition, Pakistan’s poultry sector — the second-largest after textiles — depends heavily on soybean meal as a high-protein source in feed formulations. Notably, soybean meal is also widely used in fish and dairy feed. Reflecting this dependence, in FY25, Pakistan imported soybean oil worth $344 million, along with more than 2m tonnes of raw soybeans primarily for poultry feed.

Yet, despite this apparent potential, the success of soybean cultivation in Pakistan depends not only on agronomic suitability but also on several structural and market-related factors that require careful evaluation, as they ultimately determine its long-term viability in the country.

Farmers generally prefer crops that offer higher financial returns, require fewer inputs, involve fewer operational hassles, have shorter growing periods, and carry lower production, marketing, and climate-related risks. In Pakistan, tea cultivation presents a classic example. Despite favourable agro-climatic conditions in several regions and years-long efforts, tea farming failed to gain popularity due to its long gestation period and comparatively lower financial returns than competing crops cultivated by farmers.

Similarly, farmers are generally reluctant to cultivate crops with limited marketing channels and only a few buyers in the market. Contrary to many other minor crops, the value chain of edible oilseed, such as mustard, rapeseed, sunflower, and canola is relatively established in Pakistan. Although large solvent extraction units procure these crops, the bulk of the produce is purchased by numerous small-scale oil extraction units operating in villages and towns, where the oil is extracted for various uses, including cooking.

A senior executive of a large solvent extraction unit located in South Punjab disclosed that they prefer importing canola in bulk quantities — even at relatively higher prices — rather than procuring hundreds of small lots from grain markets across Pakistan.

According to him, locally sourced produce often suffers from non-uniform specifications, inconsistent quality, uncertain supply, and daily price fluctuations. These factors create significant operational uncertainty for processors. With such preferences prevailing in the processing industry, the cultivation of edible oilseed crops, particularly soybean, is likely to remain a distant prospect in Pakistan.

Pakistan ranks among the countries with the highest per capita edible oil consumption. Palm oil dominates edible oil imports, reaching around 3.21m tonnes worth $3.4bn in FY25. As the world’s lowest-cost edible oil, palm oil remains the most affordable option for consumers in a country where, according to the World Bank’s broader poverty line, the poverty rate is estimated at around 45pc. Unless soybean oil becomes price-competitive with palm oil, its large-scale substitution in Pakistan will be nearly impossible.

This is where the government’s role becomes critical. The future success of soybean cultivation in Pakistan will largely depend on how effectively the state facilitates both farmers and processors while promoting soybean as a strategic crop that can help address multiple national challenges, including depleting water resources, growing nutritional deficiencies among the population, and increasing climate vulnerability of major crops like rice, cotton, and maize.

However, under the prevailing International Monetary Fund-driven policy framework, the government appears likely to maintain the status quo without providing any meaningful support. Consequently, the initiatives led by academia, research centres, and the private sector may struggle to scale up commercial cultivation beyond a few thousand acres, and soybeans may remain another promising crop confined largely to seminars and discussions.

Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, June 1st, 2026