With Eidul Azha approaching, cattle markets are buzzing as families seek to participate in qurbani within their means. While individual qurbani remains the preferred choice, rising costs are pushing many middle-class households towards collective arrangements. As a result, demand for larger animals has been growing faster than for goats and lambs in recent years.

To avoid the logistical hassle while retaining the spirit of giving, many young professionals are increasingly opting for online qurbani services, where meat and hides are donated to charitable causes. Several major meat merchant chains and leading charitable entities are offering a range of tailored packages to tap this demand and appeal to diverse segments of consumers.

A sharp rise in transportation costs this year has curtailed the long-distance movement of animals and traders. Large cattle markets are reporting increased inflows from nearby rural areas instead.

In Karachi, traders note an overall improvement in cattle supply compared to 2025, but a decline in the share of animals arriving from Punjab. “Transport costs have surged to prohibitive levels. With falling purchasing power, moving animals over long distances is not viable. Farmers anticipate weaker returns and know that higher prices will shrink the pool of buyers. To manage costs and protect margins, they are focusing on nearby markets,” explained Irshad Ahmed Qureshi, a meat merchant.

‘Given the size of Pakistan’s informal sector, the economy is likely far bigger than what official figures suggest and so is the Eid-related activity’

Market sources estimate cattle prices have risen by about 15 to 20 per cent this year compared to last. However, seasoned observers expect prices to soften sharply on the second and third day of Eid, as dealers rush to liquidate unsold stocks rather than incur the additional cost of transporting animals back or bearing the expense of maintaining them for another year.

“Large breeders and established cattle farm owners, with stronger market influence, can time the sales strategically based on conditions and forecasts. But small farmers, with limited livestock, are often under pressure for cash flow and end up selling quickly, even at discounted prices, overlooking time and effort invested,” said Adil, a self-proclaimed representative of farmers in Punjab.

The assessments in this report are based on an informal, cross-country survey, drawing on input from officials involved in internal estimates of Eid-related economic activity, as well as meat merchants, cattle traders, leather factory owners, bankers and retailers, to ensure a balanced perspective.

An official note circulated last year in relevant ministries, based on three weeks of pre-Eid market reports from districts across Pakistan, estimated that Eidul Azha-related activity added roughly Rs500 billion to GDP. The surge spanned cattle trading, feed supply, transportation, slaughtering services, hides and increased retail spending on Eid preparations. The note also indicated that around 1.5 million temporary jobs were created during the Eid season.

“A more structured, evidence-based study of the Eid economy is now entirely feasible, given the growing number of data points and potential big data analytics. Yet successive governments have shown little interest in undertaking such an exercise to better understand economic patterns and consumer behaviour, insights that are essential for reducing inefficiencies, shaping effective policies and promoting equitable, long-term growth.

Instead, governments tend to prioritise short-term populist measures, aimed at securing immediate political gains and prolonging their tenure,” observed a source in Islamabad, privy to high-level policy discussions.

Commenting on why the official note on the Eid economy was not published, he said, “Governments often overstate the scale of activity to support their growth narrative. Last year, plans to release the note were dropped amid concerns of backlash from political opponents and independent experts. Had the estimates been grounded in robust, real-time data, there would have been little hesitation in making them public.”

A leather garment manufacturer concurred with the broader critique of the government but described estimates of the Eid economy as conservative. “Given the size of Pakistan’s informal sector, the economy is likely far bigger than what official figures suggest and so is the Eid-related surge in activity,” he said.

A marketing executive and supporter of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf highlighted the strain on the middle class under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government, arguing that political factors have partly contributed to the market’s underperformance. “A sense of disappointment and uncertainty has taken hold. In such an environment, celebrations are bound to be more subdued,” he said.

Commenting on the outlook, Dr Usama Ehsan Khan of the Policy Research and Advisory Council, Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, noted that Eidul-Azha this year falls in peak summer, with temperatures of 40–45°C adding stress to animal care. “The economic backdrop is tougher, with inflation back in double digits (10.9pc YoY in April 2026) and fuel prices above Rs400 per litre — up nearly 60pc over the last year. As a result, cattle prices have surged compared to last year.

“While supply remains adequate, supported by restricted exports, demand is visibly weak. Rising input costs — fodder, fuel and transport — have pushed prices up, but shrinking real incomes are limiting buying power. Market footfall is high, but actual sales remain subdued, particularly in the middle segment.

“Consumer behaviour is shifting. Many households are cutting back on non-essential spending to prioritise qurbani. Collective sacrifice is gaining traction, while online platforms and organised players are expanding their footprint,” he stated.

According to the official note, urban retail accounts for roughly one-fifth of total economic activity generated during Eidul Azha. This suggests a significant net transfer of capital from urban to rural areas during the period.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 25th, 2026