BEIJING: China began the first of its “Two Sessions” meetings on Wednesday, a grand political theatre during which it will outline its annual growth target and defence budget, as well as its roadmap for the next five years.

Analysts, however, fear Beijing will not veer far from its current path despite the need for reform.

President Xi Jinping is overseeing a week of political meetings in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People that will effectively rubber-stamp decisions already made by the Chinese leader and the ruling Communist Party.

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan will be the showpiece of the annual gathering, which opened on Wednesday with the start of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, a political advisory body.

Members stood applauding in unison as Xi entered the cavernous auditorium in snowy Beijing for the opening ceremony, while a military band played. Premier Li Qiang will open the second of the two meetings — the National People’s Congress (NPC) — on Thursday, when he will announce key growth targets for the world’s second-largest economy.

The government faces pressing issues including sluggish domestic consumption and a shrinking and ageing population. China’s leaders have vowed to “create new demand through new supply and provide strong innovative measures”, but analysts say those will be secondary to Xi’s stability-first path.

The NPC, the national legislature, will this year shape laws on childcare services, social assistance and medical insurance, a spokesperson told a press conference on Wednesday. This week delegates will also review a draft law on ethnic unity aimed at “enhancing cohesion” including by promoting Mandarin Chinese over minority languages in schools.

“The thrust of it is to double down on the direction of travel Xi had already set,” Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute, said.

Nowhere is that approach more obvious than in Xi’s signature campaign against corruption, which has concentrated on the military in recent weeks and toppled some of its most senior generals.

However, analysts will be watching to see if China adjusts its military planning in response to the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

Asked about US and Israeli strikes in Iran and killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the NPC spokesperson said: “No country has the right to control global affairs (or) dictate the fate of other countries”. The conflict “will have an impact on the Two Sessions in various ways”, said Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.

“Iran and US/Israel developments will get a thorough airing” at the foreign minister’s press conference this week, he said. China’s economy expanded by five percent in 2025, in line with Beijing’s target but one of its slowest in decades.

This year’s target is likely even lower, between 4.5 and five percent, with many provinces reducing their GDP targets in recent weeks. China’s leaders say the economic model must shift towards consumption-based growth, rather than traditional drivers such as manufacturing and exports.

Yet a flagging property market, deflation and elevated youth unemployment have left consumers tightening their purse strings. Over-production and international trade tensions have also loomed over industrial output, and this year’s plan is set to concentrate on high-tech manufacturing, green transition and supply chain resilience.

Published in Dawn, March 5th, 2026