For Pakistan’s economy to grow sustainably, it has to overcome some serious constraints to growth.
Much of what needs to be done is in the realm of governance; hence, its impact may play out over a longer period.
The federal budget for 2020-21 due today.
The economic impact is via multiple channels.
Flawed reasoning and muddled maths are informing government action.
The policy response so far has been misplaced and piecemeal in two key areas.
The impact of the pandemic is likely to be deep and far-reaching.
Exceptional times call for exceptional policies
The global economy has hit severe turbulence.
The IMF programme appears to have been paused, not derailed.
The failure of governance highlights systemic issues which predate the present government.
Pakistan needs a return to high rates of economic growth, but only one that is sustained, export-led, and inclusive.
2020 could see the continuation of the challenging environment the PTI govt has had to contend with since taking office.
The government should avoid singing from a flawed hymn sheet.
The central bank is ignoring significant potential risks.
Key elements of successful reform design appear to be missing.
It is important to place the EoDB indicators in perspective.
Despite the fiscal straitjacket there are potential avenues to growth.
Recessionary conditions prevail as a result of both the crisis and the response.
The parlous state of public finances presents a dire challenge.