COME January and Donald Trump will move back into the White House to begin his second presidential term, having crossed the barrier of 270 electoral college votes needed to clinch the presidency.

A flood of congratulations pouring in from world leaders indicate that global capitals are now preparing to deal with a Trump presidency. Though much of his politics is divisive, Donald Trump has engineered a remarkable return to the top of the American power structure. Felony convictions, assassination attempts, and a lack of coherent policy prescriptions — nothing could stop his march back to the White House.

Domestically, high inflation was likely the biggest trigger that prompted Americans to vote for Mr Trump. The Democrats’ hubris — for example, President Joe Biden calling Trump supporters ‘garbage’ — also played a part in their defeat. In fact, the Democratic party and much of the mainstream media have perhaps failed to properly explore the reasons fuelling ‘Trumpism’ and the disenchantment of many Americans with mainstream politicians, which helped propel the rise of Mr Trump as a political entity.

On the foreign front, the Biden administration’s unyielding support for Israel’s genocidal campaigns in occupied Palestine and Lebanon alienated most Arab- and Muslim-Americans — many of whom form significant voting blocs in swing states. Many amongst these constituencies likely voted for Trump not out of any ideological affiliation with the Republicans — who are as pro-Israel, if not more, than the Democrats — but to punish Mr Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

By January, the surprise in many quarters at Mr Trump’s return would have fizzled out, and he will have to deliver on his promise of ‘making America great again’. Domestically, he will need solid plans to reduce inflation and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. But to the rest of the world, his real test will lie in ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Mr Trump has claimed he could end the Ukraine conflict in “24 hours”, and has called the Ukrainian president a “salesman”, indicating that US dollars to Kyiv could very soon dry up.

As for Israel, Donald Trump is an unabashed supporter of Tel Aviv, and the far right in Israel is jubilant at his return. It remains to be seen how his promises to Arab-American voters to bring ‘peace’ to the Middle East reconcile with his blatantly pro-Israel bias. Moreover, while the neocon wing of Trump supporters will call on him to expand America’s ‘forever wars’, the America First faction will counsel him to abandon foreign conflicts and focus on the homeland. Time will tell which camp prevails.

As for Pakistan, the last few American administrations have maintained lukewarm ties with this country, and there is little to suggest an improvement in relations under the new Trump set-up.

Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2024