THOUGH the PTI’s stand-off with the ruling coalition shows no signs of easing, the party’s march towards success at the ballot box continues unabated. After winning 15 seats in the Punjab Assembly by-elections last month, and thereafter capturing the Punjab government following a melodramatic struggle in the courts, the PTI’s latest victory, as per unofficial results, has been in Karachi’s NA-245 constituency. The seat was vacated after the party’s lawmaker and televangelist Aamir Liaquat Hussain died in June. Though the turnout was thin — the PTI’s candidate captured the seat with just over 29,000 votes in a constituency with over 500,000 registered voters — Sunday’s election results clearly indicate that the PTI’s graph is on the rise. The MQM’s man came a distant second losing by around 16,000 votes. The Muttahida, once upon a time, used to be unassailable in this part of Karachi, partly through the use of muscle power and electoral malpractices, and partly due to its genuine vote bank. However, in a worrying development, the TLP managed to secure third place, which indicates that Karachi’s electoral dynamics are changing, and not necessarily for the better.

While Imran Khan himself had led an aggressive campaign, with rallies criss-crossing Punjab, during last month’s provincial assembly by-polls, in the case of NA-245 the PTI supremo did not even bother to visit Karachi. In fact, none of the PTI’s first-tier leadership campaigned hard for the seat. The fact that the party managed to coast to victory despite lacklustre campaigning suggests that voters are responding to Mr Khan’s narrative, though it could also be the case that in NA-245, voters opted for the PTI’s candidate for lack of better alternatives amongst those in the running. Another factor that goes in the PTI’s favour is that it was able to clinch the seat despite the fact that the PPP had withdrawn its candidate in the MQM’s favour. The upcoming second leg of Sindh’s local government elections, as well as by-polls on nine National Assembly constituencies scheduled for Sept 25, which were necessitated after the PTI’s MNAs resigned and were de-notified, will further clarify whether the popularity wave will be capable of carrying Khan’s party to victory in general elections, or if it is a short-term phenomenon. For the time being, Imran Khan’s narrative seems to be resonating with the voter, and the ruling coalition should be seriously worried about confronting the PTI juggernaut at the ballot box.

Published in Dawn, August 23rd, 2022