THOSE hoping that Thursday’s over two-hour-long phone call between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping would help cool things off between the US and China would be disappointed. If anything, the uncomfortable conversation has only reiterated the belief that the world’s two top economies may inadvertently walk into a conflict over Taiwan. For the international community, particularly the Global South, this would be a disastrous development that would do more damage to the world’s economy, which is already experiencing severe pain due to the Russia-Ukraine war. With reference to Taiwan, Mr Xi told the American leader that “those who play with fire will eventually get burned”. There was little nuance behind the message. While bilateral ties over Taiwan have been steadily deteriorating during the past few months, a planned visit to the island, which China considers part of its territory, by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is being seen by Beijing as a provocation. Lower-ranking American officials and lawmakers do visit Taiwan, but Ms Pelosi’s proposed trip would be the first of a top-tier US office-holder since 1997.

If America seeks to continue its policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ and still adheres to the ‘One China’ policy, then it would be best for Ms Pelosi to put off her visit. There would be no major positive outcome and the trip would inflame China and potentially spark a conflict. The CIA chief recently told a conference that it was not a question of ‘if’ China would retake Taiwan by force, “but how and when they would do it”. In an ideal world, China would have resolved the Taiwan question peacefully. However, if Beijing is planning otherwise, it would be ill-advised for Washington to start a conflict over the island. The rhetoric between China and the US very much mirrors the nasty exchanges that took place between Russia and the West before the Ukraine war. It is hoped that the Taiwan dispute does not lead to a similar showdown between China and the US in Asia.

Published in Dawn, July 31st, 2022