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IN the near-term, the judgement changes little or nothing for Nawaz Sharif.
If the National Assembly completes its term on May 31, as seems likely, the next general election will be scheduled for late July. Sharif was disqualified last July and there was no chance that his disqualification would be for a year or less.
Indeed, the most generous argument before the Supreme Court for the application of Article 62(1)(f) to less than a lifetime was for a five-year disqualification.
What the judgement has done, however, is re-focus political debate on Sharif: what is his end goal and where is the strategy to achieve it?
To outsiders, neither seems apparent.
In the longer term, the judgement is certainly a blow to the political future of Sharif. Between his disqualification last July and a declaration that disqualification under Article 62(1) is for a lifetime, the current and several future chief justices of Pakistan have declared Sharif to be ineligible for electoral politics. This before a NAB court has concluded the trial of Sharif and his family.
“Oh, it’s over for him. He does not think he will be PM again,” said Hamid Mir, when asked if Sharif intends to force his way back into front-line, electoral politics.
Shafqat Mahmood of the PTI had a similar view: “This is now a past and closed transaction. You can’t have an NRO with the judiciary.”
The PTI MNA continued: “The real consideration is Maryam, his legacy and the properties abroad,” suggesting that changes in UK law may make it possible for Pakistan to try and claw back assets located abroad if an NAB conviction follows.
Among PML-N hawks, the view is predictably different. “I thought it’s apparent,” said a senior PML-N leader when asked what Sharif’s legal-political strategy is. “The strategy is simple: we have legal and political recourse. Will continue to reach out to the people with our narrative. If there’s a free and fair electoral process, people of Pakistan will overwhelmingly vote for PML-N. If that happens, the parliament can take decisions whatever it decides.”
The senior PML-N leader, among others in the PML-N, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of concerns about contempt of court charges in the current political environment.
Each suggested that just as a politicised process case against Nawaz has unfolded in the courts, when Sharif’s and the PML-N’s political fortunes change, court declarations may be reversed.
Suhail Warraich, an expert on Punjab politics, concurred: “He (Nawaz) is gaining time just to see changes in judiciary and military or some international upheaval.”
The implication being that while Sharif does not see an immediate path back to electoral politics, he is focused on the longer term, where national or geopolitical changes could be more favourable to Sharif.
A picture being circulated by the PML-N reinforces that view. The picture is of the front page of Jang newspaper on July 23, 2000. The headline screams: ‘14 years prison, 2 crore rupees fine, 21 years disqualification’ for Sharif in the so-called helicopter case.
Yet, even as Sharif continues to barnstorm the country to significant political success, gathering major crowds across Punjab and, notably, in Peshawar, the legal vice in which he is caught has undeniably tightened. A lifetime disqualification by the Supreme Court means no further participation in electoral politics.
If Sharif had hoped to sit out the next parliamentary term, just as he did between 2008 and 2013, and return to politics in 2023, that door too has now been closed.
Meanwhile, if the PML-N’s aim is to win a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly with the support of allies to change the Constitution, a two-thirds majority in the Senate — required to amend the Constitution — is virtually insurmountable after the recent debacle in the Senate.
Outside Sharif’s core circle, then, the relentless legal pressure on Sharif combined with Sharif’s relentless campaigning has only one logical answer: Sharif is fighting for the political future of his daughter and his own political legacy.
“Disqualification does not mean he has to leave politics altogether,” said Hamid Mir. “If he (Nawaz) can’t be prime minister again, then doesn’t mean it’s completely over. There’s still Maryam and who knows what the future may bring.”
There may though be one clear, skin-in-the-game measure in the days ahead of which way Sharif’s political fate has tilted after yesterday’s Supreme Court judgment: defections from the PML-N. With only weeks until a caretaker government assumes charge, the pressure on candidates to declare affiliations and pick sides ahead of the general election will be intense.
That, then, could be Sharif’s first order of business after yesterday’s judgment: convincing his own party that standing by him is in their and the party’s interest.
After yesterday, the task may have become just a little bit harder.
Published in Dawn, April 14th, 2018
Comments (33) Closed
As mentioned here Mr.Nawaz shareef is waiting for change in command and any favorable international event,all our history has been under written by such events and as we can see individuals have survived because of them but Pakistan has suffered,there is no free lunch every thing comes at a price and in our case very heavy price.
In hindsight, it would have been better if Nawaz had resigned as PM in April 2016 when the Monseck-Fonseca accounts were revealed. It would have taken the steam out of opposition campaign and Nawaz could have pulled the strings of Khaqan Abbasi from Raiwind Palace. He would still have been party chief and eligible for public office in 2018. There were indeed many political analysts who were advising the same course of action. Nawaz allowed himself to be surrounded by sycophants who were only pushing him to antagonize the judiciary and bury his own future.
"Each suggested that just as a politicised process case against Nawaz has unfolded in the courts, when Sharif’s and the PML-N’s political fortunes change, court declarations may be reversed." _If Nawaz tries to again become prime minister he will find himself in trouble which will be impossible to get himself out of. _ Just my opinion. At his age he should retire and enjoy himself. None of his children will ever become prime minister of Pakistan. He should stay out of politics and reinvent himself. The popularity of Nawaz Sharif and the popularity of the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz are no longer the same.
I have criticized Mr. Almeida’s cryptic writing style in the past. Today is not one of those days. This article is well-composed and is easy to read.
Why don't we now close the books on NS as being deadwood? Being what he is (or was), i.e. nothing of a politician or an intellectual, why are we eulogising his exit as some kind of a national hero, a victim of an unfair judgement.
I am baffled how all these people are fixated to keep a corrupt individual in game. Can some one explain this phenomenon?
@Shakeel Ahmed because the same happened 18 years ago... yet the man came back ...
They are going to be cleaned bold.No more Sheirf Dynasty....Niether Daughter no Uncle....Time has come to call it a shot....throw these corrupt family from the arrina of parliament of Pakistan...
@Asim only those people who are directly or indirectly beneficiary of PMLN buy this theory.
Somehow I have a feeling that ultimately in the long term, Sharif’s family/ party, would be electorally benefitted out of this ruling by way of sympathetic considerations, which is what has been generally happening in south Asian countries. As someone put it, amendments to law may bring him back into reckoning.
the real question must be- What is important for PAKISTAN???. Leaders come and go It's the Federation which must be strong. An elected leader was unable to show the money trail of his assets despite all available forums and proved himself immoral has been put to task and a right example for others... Leadership without character is like a country without law and justice..
That mugshot above is definitely a telltale sign where he is headed and what is next for Nawaz Sharif.
Yet another course destabilizes a political process what experienced last 7 decades. Let democracy take its route and root first help eliminate such elements from national politics or continue mayhem.
The Pundits need to grapple with the reality and move on. Nawaz is gone - move on and look for honest leadership and it does not have to be a 'SHARIF'.
Irrelevant concerns while time is relentlessly running out .
How tragically sad it is that most seem to be entangled in the 'political' fate of an individual but cannot bring themselves up to see what has been done to this huge landmass called Pakistan, it's resources, and citizens in hundreds of millions. Some of these opinion makers do not even shy from invoking foreign influence to help change conditions to favor one individual/family. Will anybody do that w/o strings attached? Probably, that is inconsequential to them as long as their man succeeds. There is a standard. Instead of uplifting themselves and demanding from others to do the same, they conspire to throw away the standard itself. What a solution to get their way through! And that are the meanings of freedom for them. One wonders how they view sovereignty.
Pakistan must be the only place on earth where murderers and crooked politicians are revered. It's no wonder why we are in such a state!
Nothing much, he will sit home and look after his better half, its been a long inning.
He is not a visionary leader and looks more like a king and aiming to make her beloved daughter head of N-League and also get her selected (Elected ?) as PM of Pakistan
Nawaz taught one thing to Pakistanis. Amass wealth by all foul means, ingratiate yourself to powers that be to partake of that power, Use this power and stolen wealth to capture a mob of unscrupulous wretched from the society, Use this mob as election rigging machinery. The democracy of third world countries is a cow that can be milked if you know how. And last learn to lie like Sharifs and Pakistan is yours,
He lost because of poor judgement ,as they say three strikes and you are out. Nepotism,mixing countries business with his own, attention deficit and impulsiveness resulted in the downfall. Country has been very generous to him over the last 40 years inspite of his blunders. He should work voluntarily for Edhi foundation for the good of the country. That one gem we should not loose.This will bring respect back to him. Will his greed allow him?
@Shibly with this logic you are just fooling your self
What next for Nawaz Sharif - Minimum Adiala Jail and maximum Gallows.
He had gotten more than what he has desired for, and now is the time to quit honorably and give chance to other righteous upcoming younger politicians.
Grassroot People still loves NS irrespective of what is being portrayed. Trump won even though US media had virtually declared Clinton to be the winner.
Interesting how the writer insists on defending and projecting tge Sharif family as the only viable option for Pakistan. This is paid content.
IK the only saviour for Pakistan
So I will repeat and remind Cyril that the 5-0 Verdict stands. So why do you not do us a favor and tell us how it happened. That would make for a more interesting reading and may even help predict the future.
Not a little bit harder but extremely impossible, the legislators already began their own different directional routes, a new dimension in politics after SC asked to include Najafi Report of Model Town incident and decide within 2 weeks. Mohtarma Maryam already nominated in Avenfield Flats ownership case. The only family member Shahbaz Sharif was considered as clean, but the Model Case is a hanging fear untill decided. Yet if more searched to lead plausibly,the next name of Hamza Sharif comes to minds, but he is too young, nor charismatic, to keep the party safe from disintegration the process already in progress, PM Shahid Khaqan Abassi well felt the dept of damage to his party, and express frustrations in his latest statement.With due respect to M/s Cyril Almeida, & Hamid Mir, the situation is not little bit harder now but extreme hardships in political journey of PML(N). Time will prove the precision of analysis,just wait and see.
@Asim Don't be so naive . Politics and corruption are bhai-bhai
@Shibly Well said Shibly. Panama papers accountability will surely prove that the Sharif's deserve jail time.
@Fais Because of Musharef stupidity.
Jail