AFTER the recent flurry of meetings between Pakistani and Afghan leaders and between the army and government, as well as the military’s insistence that the North Waziristan operation will be against all militants, there’s hope, finally, that the change in rhetoric on militancy will be matched with changes in state policy on tackling the scourge. On this point, the military leadership and the PML-N government have been unusually categorical: there will be no favourites or good Taliban/bad Taliban distinction in clearing out North Waziristan. Taking the military and the government at their word, the expectation still should not be that the military will rain down missiles and artillery on militants of every stripe. Instead, it is hoped the state is ready to sever ties with these elements and that no militant group, foreign or local, is allowed to maintain sanctuaries in the tribal agency.

Yet, is that truly the case? Will ties to the Haqqanis really be cut? What about Gul Bahadur and his long-term on-again, off-again relationship with the Pakistani military? Has it been finally and irrevocably ended or will expediency and a relationship of mutual convenience be allowed to revive ties again? Especially on the Haqqani front, the choice the military makes will have regional and international repercussions, given how the group is regarded by the Afghan and American governments. Surely, neither an Afghan government nor an American administration would demand that Pakistan militarily take on the Haqqanis given their proven ability to launch the most sophisticated and devastating of attacks. But what of the growing suspicion that perhaps the security establishment here is still shielding the Haqqanis and may have offered them safe passage out of the imminent battle zone or even helped physically relocate some of the Haqqani leadership in other parts of Fata? It is indeed encouraging that Pakistani foreign and security policy architects have at long last started to speak in specific terms of distancing the state from all militant groups. But the welcome clarity of language must be matched with clarity on the ground.

Similarly, the more purposeful and positive language between Pakistani and Afghan officials when it comes to ending cross-border militancy and sanctuaries on either side of the border is a welcome sign. So far, there had been little action taken by the Americans or Kabul against elements of the outlawed TTP operating from bordering Afghan provinces. The tensions over cross-border violence in the Kunar region in particular have soared in recent weeks and need to be urgently tamped down. For that to happen it will have to be largely a bilateral process and one in which patience, cooperation and good faith are preferred over the path of accusations and recriminations. It is possible. Both sides will find out soon enough if it is real or not.

Published in Dawn, June 28th , 2014